USA

US Home Price Insights – June 2024 – CoreLogic

6 minutes, 44 seconds Read

Through April 2024 With Forecasts Through April 2025

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.3% in April 2024 compared with April 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 1.1% in April 2024 compared with March 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally


Buy/sell, rent/lease residential &
commercials real estate properties.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.8% from April 2024 to May 2024 and increase by 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from April 2024 to April 2025.

Current month-over-month and year-over year U.S. home price growth and projections through April 2025
Chart 1: Current month-over-month and year-over year U.S. home price growth and projections through April 2025

Home Price Growth Set to Cool by Spring 2025

Annual U.S. home price appreciation remained above 5% in April, with three states posting double-digit gains. By next spring, national price gains are projected to slow to 3.4%, with only a few states putting up increases of higher than 6%. This slow cooling reflects not only the increasing number of homes on the market in some parts of the country, but also elevated, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, which remain  around 7%, a major factor influencing America’s continuing housing affordability challenges.

“Home price growth continues to slow, as a comparison with a strong 2023 spring is still impacting year-over-year differences. Nevertheless, the April uptick in mortgage rates to this year’s high has cooled some of the typical spring homebuyer demand, which pulled monthly gains of 1.1% below the March-to-April average. The home price slowing also highlights buyers’ increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, as well as the anticipation that presumed lower rates down the road will help ease the affordability crunch. Also, the price cooling is more pronounced in markets where there has been an influx of inventory and/or new construction, as well as those where additional homeownership costs (such as insurance, taxes and HOA fees) have risen relatively faster.”

Dr. Selma Hepp

– Chief Economist for CoreLogic

HPI National and State Maps – April 2024

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, home prices increased by 5.3% year over year in April. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Hampshire (12%), New Jersey (11%) and South Dakota (10.8%).

Year-over-year home price changes by state, April 2024
Chart 2: Year-over-year home price changes by state, April 2024

HPI Top 10 Metros Change

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in April, with San Diego posting the highest gain at 9.9% year over year.

Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas, April 2024
Chart 3: Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas, April 2024

Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL are also at very high risk for price declines.

Top five U.S. markets at risk of annual price declines, April 2024
Chart 4: Top five U.S. markets at risk of annual price declines, April 2024

Summary

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicator

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction. 

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at [email protected]. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

This post was originally published on 3rd party site mentioned on the title of this site

Similar Posts

X
0
    0
    Your Interest
    Your Interest List is emptyReturn to Buying
    ×