Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets Least At-Risk of Declines in Q1 2024 – ATTOM Data Solutions

According to ATTOM’s newly released Q1 2024 Special Housing Risk Report, California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again had the highest concentrations of the most at-risk markets in the country, with significant clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas, as well as inland California. Conversely, less vulnerable markets were predominantly spread across the South and Midwest.

The analysis also noted that the first-quarter patterns, based on gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment, revealed that California, New Jersey, and Illinois accounted for 34 of the 50 U.S. counties most exposed to potential declines. As in previous years, these concentrations dominated the list of metropolitan areas more at risk of downturns.

ATTOM’s Q1 2024 housing impact report mentioned that the list of 50 counties included six in and around Chicago, five in the New York City metropolitan area, and 14 in various regions of California, primarily inland. The remaining counties were distributed across other parts of the country.

Also, according to the report, on the opposite end of the risk spectrum, 22 of the 50 markets considered least likely to decline were located in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. Among these, four were in the Washington, DC, metro area, and another four were in the Richmond, VA, metro area.

ATTOM’s latest analysis stated that out of the 50 counties deemed least vulnerable to housing market problems in the first-quarter report, 24 were in the South and 19 were in the Midwest. Only four were in the Northeast, and three were in the West.

In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q1 2024 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the top 10 U.S. counties least at-risk of housing market declines. Those include: Chittenden County, VT; Shelby County, AL; Davidson County, TN; Albemarle County, VA; Henrico County, VA; Brown County, WI; Sullivan County, TN; Sedgwick County, KS; and Blount County, TN.

#1 – Chittenden County, VT

• 45.6% of income needed to buy
• 0.9% of properties underwater
• 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 1.4% May 2024 unemployment rate

#2 – Shelby County, AL

• 30.0% of income needed to buy
• 3.7% of properties underwater
• 0.03% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.3% May 2024 unemployment rate

#3 – Davidson County, TN

• 35.1% of income needed to buy
• 4.0% of properties underwater
• 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.5% May 2024 unemployment rate

#4 – Albemarle County, VA

• 42.2% of income needed to buy
• 2.8% of properties underwater
• 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.2% May 2024 unemployment rate

#5 – Henrico County, VA

• 36.2% of income needed to buy
• 2.8% of properties underwater
• 0.03% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.5% May 2024 unemployment rate

#6 – Brown County, WI

• 32.3% of income needed to buy
• 3.8% of properties underwater
• 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 3.0% May 2024 unemployment rate

#7 – Sullivan County, TN

• 21.7% of income needed to buy
• 4.0% of properties underwater
• 0.04% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 3.1% May 2024 unemployment rate

#8 – Knox County, TN

• 33.8% of income needed to buy
• 2.7% of properties underwater
• 0.04% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.5% May 2024 unemployment rate

#9 – Sedgwick County, KS

• 21.3% of income needed to buy
• 5.3% of properties underwater
• 0.01% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 3.3% May 2024 unemployment rate

#10 – Blount County, TN

• 37.8% of income needed to buy
• 2.9% of properties underwater
• 0.03% of properties with foreclosure filings
• 2.6% May 2024 unemployment rate

The report stated that counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates.

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