NYC Housing Market: Prices, Trends & Forecast 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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Here are the latest trends in the NYC real estate market as well as the statewide market.  The current state of the New York real estate market presents challenges for both buyers and sellers. With the inventory of homes hitting a record low, signaling a 20.7 percent decline compared to the previous year, the scarcity favors sellers.

Contrary to expectations, home prices in New York have not experienced a drop. Median sales prices have risen for the fourth consecutive month in year-over-year comparisons. The figures show a 2.6 percent increase, climbing from $360,468 in November 2022 to $370,000 in 2023. This sustained upward trend in prices suggests a resilient market, challenging assumptions of a decline in home values.


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The Current Landscape of the New York Real Estate Market

The New York real estate market experienced significant shifts in inventory, sales prices, and interest rates in November, as outlined in the latest housing report from the New York State Association of REALTORS®.

Record-Low Inventory

In November, the inventory of homes for sale reached an unprecedented low of 27,779 units, indicating a substantial 20.7 percent decline compared to the 35,029 homes available in November 2022. This scarcity in inventory poses challenges for prospective buyers and reflects the dynamic nature of the current real estate landscape.

Median Sales Prices on the Rise

The median sales prices in New York rose for the fourth consecutive month in year-over-year comparisons. The figures climbed by 2.6 percent, escalating from $360,468 in November 2022 to $370,000 in 2023. This sustained increase may influence market dynamics and impact the decision-making process for both buyers and sellers.

Fluctuating Interest Rates

Interest rates, while still elevated, demonstrated a month-over-month drop. According to Freddie Mac, the average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased from 7.62 percent in October to 7.44 percent in November. Comparing these figures to the previous year, there is a notable increase from 6.81 percent in the same period. Understanding these shifts in interest rates is crucial for those navigating the real estate market.

Decline in Closed Sales

Closed sales experienced a 13.7 percent decline in November, dropping from 10,221 sales in 2022 to 8,819 sales last month. This decline marks the 27th consecutive month in year-over-year comparisons where closed sales have fallen. The reasons behind this trend warrant further investigation and analysis.

Positive Indicators in Pending Sales

While closed sales showed a decline, pending sales exhibited a 1.4 percent increase, rising from 7,859 homes in November 2022 to 7,970 homes last month. This upward trend in pending sales may suggest potential future market activity, providing optimism for real estate professionals and industry stakeholders.

New Listings and Market Dynamics

New listings saw a modest decline in November, falling by 1.5 percent from 9,359 listings in November 2022 to 9,220 listings last month. Understanding the dynamics of new listings is essential for assessing market trends and predicting future developments.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in New York?

The decision of whether now is a good time to buy a house depends on various factors. The record-low inventory and rising median sales prices may pose challenges for buyers. However, the drop in interest rates and the increase in pending sales could indicate future opportunities. Prospective buyers should carefully assess their individual circumstances, consider market trends, and consult with real estate professionals to make informed decisions in this complex and evolving market.

The Current State of the New York City Housing Market

The housing market in New York City is experiencing notable shifts, marked by changes in rent growth, inventory levels, and rental concessions. The latest data by StreetEasy® reveals key insights into the dynamics of the market, providing valuable information for both tenants and landlords.

Slower Year-Over-Year Rent Growth

November witnessed the slowest year-over-year rent growth in New York City since August 2021. The growth rate stood at 2.9%, a significant decline from the rapid increases observed after the pandemic lull. Despite this, the citywide median asking rent fell 2.8% to $3,500 in November from $3,600 in October, reflecting seasonal variations but still maintaining a modest increase from the previous year.

Rental Concessions and Softening Competition

Rising inventory across the city has led to a cooling of competition among renters. In November, there were 32,049 rentals on the market, indicating an 8.6% increase from the previous year. This rise contrasts sharply with the acute inventory shortages experienced in 2022, which resulted in a 23.6% year-over-year increase in median asking rent. The current rate of 2.9% signals a notable slowdown.

Rental concessions have reached a two-year high, with 19.9% of rentals offering at least one month of free rent in November. This increase from 14.3% in November 2022 suggests a shift in the market dynamics, favoring renters. More concessions could indicate further slowing of rent growth in the coming year, aligning with predictions for 2024.

Borough-Specific Trends

Manhattan leads the five boroughs in inventory growth, with 10.2% more rentals on the market compared to a year ago. However, the median asking rent declined 1.1% to $4,150 in November, showcasing a notable slowdown from the rapid growth seen in November 2022. Brooklyn experienced a 3.1% slip in median asking rents, while Queens stood out with 11.5% year-over-year rent growth, making it an attractive option for those seeking more affordable rentals.

Future Projections and Demand-Supply Dynamics in NYC

As inventory continues to rise, the market is expected to become less challenging in 2024. Elevated rents are motivating landlords to list their vacant units promptly. However, despite slowing rent growth, NYC renters still face limited options. With a resilient economy supporting demand, the rental market remains competitive, as the number of apartment seekers continues to outpace the available units for rent. The interplay of these factors will shape the housing landscape in the city in the coming months.

New York Real Estate Market Forecast for 2024

What are the New York City real estate market predictions for 2024?  Zillow’s recent data provides valuable insights into the current state and future projections of the real estate market in New York.

Top 10 Areas in New York Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Drop in 2024

The real estate landscape in New York is expected to witness shifts in specific areas, with projections indicating potential declines in home prices for the year 2024. These forecasts are based on comprehensive data reflecting changes in various regions, highlighting nuances that could impact the housing market dynamics.

New York, NY

In the metropolitan statistical area (msa) of New York, NY, there is an anticipated decline in home prices. As of 31st December 2023, the change in home prices stood at 0.1%. However, the forecast for 29th February 2024 suggests a contraction of -0.5%, and by 30th November 2024, the projection deepens with an expected decrease of -2.9%. This indicates a significant potential downturn in home values in the bustling metropolis.

Corning, NY

Similarly, in the msa of Corning, NY, the trend points towards a decline in home prices. Starting with a slight dip of -0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a more pronounced decrease of -1%. By the end of the year on 30th November 2024, the expected decline is -2.1%. This signals a noteworthy contraction in the housing market within this region.

Elmira, NY

Elmira, NY, is also on the list of areas anticipating a decline in home prices. Beginning with a modest increase of 0.2% on 30th November 2023, the forecast for 29th February 2024 shows a shift to -0.3%, indicating a reversal. The projection for 30th November 2024 suggests a more substantial decrease of -1.8%. This highlights the potential challenges in maintaining home values within Elmira.

Albany, NY

In Albany, NY, the forecast points towards a negative trajectory in home prices. As of 30th November 2023, there was no significant change, with a marginal increase of 0%. However, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a decrease of -0.6%, and by 30th November 2024, the expected decline deepens to -1.7%. This suggests a notable contraction in the housing market within Albany.

Cortland, NY

Cortland, NY, part of the metropolitan statistical area in the state, exhibits a trend towards a decline in home prices. Commencing with a slight increase of 0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a shift to a more substantial decrease of -0.3%. By 30th November 2024, the expected decline in home prices is -1.7%. This signals potential challenges in maintaining property values within Cortland.

Ithaca, NY

In Ithaca, NY, the forecast points towards a negative trajectory in home prices. Starting with a minor increase of 0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a more pronounced decrease of -0.6%. By 30th November 2024, the expected decline is -1.6%. This suggests a notable contraction in the housing market within the Ithaca region.

Ogdensburg, NY

Ogdensburg, NY, also anticipates a decline in home prices. Commencing with a modest increase of 0.3% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 show a shift to a decrease of -0.4%. By 30th November 2024, the expected decline is -1.2%. This underscores the dynamic nature of the real estate market within Ogdensburg.

Plattsburgh, NY

Similarly, in Plattsburgh, NY, there is a projection for a decline in home prices. Starting with a minor increase of 0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a more pronounced decrease of -0.4%. By 30th November 2024, the expected decline is -1.2%. This highlights potential challenges in maintaining property values within the Plattsburgh region.

Oneonta, NY

Oneonta, NY, part of the New York metropolitan statistical area, is also expected to experience a decline in home prices. As of 30th November 2023, there was no significant change, with a marginal increase of 0%. However, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a decrease of -0.4%, and by 30th November 2024, the expected decline deepens to -1.2%. This suggests potential challenges in maintaining property values within Oneonta.

Watertown, NY

In Watertown, NY, the forecast indicates a mixed trend. Starting with a notable increase of 0.4% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 show a modest increase of 0.1%. However, by 30th November 2024, the expected decline is -1%. This emphasizes the dynamic nature of the real estate market within Watertown.

Top Areas in New York Where Home Prices Are Predicted to Grow in 2024

Contrasting with regions expecting a decline, certain areas in New York show promising trends, with projections indicating potential growth in home prices for the year 2024. These forecasts provide valuable insights into regions where property values are expected to appreciate.

Kingston, NY

Kingston, NY, part of the metropolitan statistical area in the state, anticipates growth in home prices. Commencing with a positive increase of 0.3% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0.4%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is more substantial, reaching 2.3%. This suggests a favorable outlook for property values within the Kingston region.

Hudson, NY

Similarly, in Hudson, NY, there is a projection for growth in home prices. Starting with a minor decline of -0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a shift to a modest increase of 0.1%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is more pronounced, reaching 1.7%. This highlights a positive trajectory in the real estate market within the Hudson region.

Olean, NY

Olean, NY, is also on the list of areas anticipating growth in home prices. Commencing with a modest increase of 0.2% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0.3%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is 1.3%. This indicates a positive outlook for maintaining and potentially increasing property values within Olean.

Jamestown, NY

Jamestown, NY, part of the New York metropolitan statistical area, is also expected to experience growth in home prices. Commencing with a minor increase of 0.1% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is 1.2%. This suggests a positive trajectory for property values within Jamestown.

Syracuse, NY

Syracuse, NY, part of the metropolitan statistical area in the state, is expected to experience growth in home prices. Commencing with a positive increase of 0.3% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0.3%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is 0.8%. This indicates a positive trajectory for property values within the Syracuse region, presenting potential opportunities for homeowners and investors.

Utica, NY

Similarly, in Utica, NY, there is a projection for growth in home prices. Starting with a positive increase of 0.3% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0.4%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is 0.5%. This underscores a positive outlook for property values within the Utica region, presenting opportunities for those involved in the real estate market.

Amsterdam, NY

Amsterdam, NY, is also on the list of areas anticipating growth in home prices. Commencing with a notable increase of 0.5% on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a steady rise of 0.3%. By 30th November 2024, the expected growth is 0.5%. This suggests a positive outlook for maintaining and potentially increasing property values within Amsterdam, providing insights for those interested in the real estate market in this region.

Rochester, NY

Rochester, NY, is expected to experience modest growth in home prices. Commencing with a baseline of 0% change on 30th November 2023, the projections for 29th February 2024 indicate a minor decline of -0.4%. However, by 30th November 2024, the expected growth returns, reaching 0.3%. This suggests a stable market in Rochester, with potential opportunities for appreciation in property values over the specified period.

Will the New York Housing Market Crash?

As of the available data and projections, there is no definitive indication of an imminent crash in the New York housing market. Instead, the forecast provides nuanced insights into various factors influencing the market dynamics.

The forecast reveals diverse trends across different regions in New York. While some areas are projected to experience a decline in home prices, others are expected to see growth. These regional variations highlight the complexity of the real estate market, suggesting that the overall market condition is contingent on multiple factors.

The analysis of inventory levels and competition among renters and buyers is essential in understanding the forecast. Areas with rising inventory and increased rental concessions may witness a slowdown in rent growth. This does not necessarily imply a crash but rather an adjustment in market dynamics. The interplay of supply and demand remains a crucial factor in shaping the market’s trajectory.

Fluctuations in interest rates and broader economic conditions play a pivotal role in shaping the housing market. The forecast suggests that interest rates, while still elevated, have experienced fluctuations. Economic stability and mortgage rate trends will continue to influence buyer behavior and overall market health. Monitoring these factors is vital for a comprehensive understanding of the market outlook.

Contrary to a crash, certain regions in New York are projected to experience growth in home prices. This indicates resilience in specific areas and suggests that the market is not universally in decline. For homeowners and investors, understanding these growth projections offers insights into potential opportunities for appreciation in property values.

New York Rental Market Report

The Zumper New York City Metro Area Report analyzed active listings across the metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The New York one-bedroom median rent was $2,444 last month. New York City was the most expensive market with one-bedrooms priced at $4,300 whereas Newark was the most affordable city with rent priced at $1,450.

Here are the places where it makes sense to invest in rental properties in the New York City Metro Area. These are the places where the demand for rentals is growing strong in 2024.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in New York City Metro Area (Y/Y%)

  • Paterson had the fastest growing rent, up 27% since this time last year.
  • Hoboken saw rent climb 22.4%, making it second.
  • Yonkers rent was the third fastest growing, jumping 17.9%.

The Fastest Growing Cities For Rents in New York City Metro Area (M/M%)

  • Bayonne had the largest monthly rental growth rate, up 6.2%.
  • Union City rent was the second fastest growing, climbing 6.1%.
  • Poughkeepsie was third with rent growing 4.6%.
New York Rental Market Trends
Source: Zumper

Top Real Estate Estate Markets in New York

Buffalo real estate market

The Buffalo real estate investment offers a surprisingly good deal with low prices and relatively high rental rates. The Buffalo real estate market is dominated by older homes. A majority of homes in the Buffalo housing market were built before World War 2. Interestingly, this also means that many small apartment buildings are designed to serve a population that rented small units close to their jobs.

For example, roughly a third of homes are single-family detached homes, while almost half take the form of small apartment buildings. This creates an excellent opportunity for those in the market for Buffalo rental properties. You could buy a small apartment building with multiple tenants for the cost of a single rental property in a more expensive New York real estate market.

Syracuse real estate market

Syracuse’s real estate market offers cheaper property with a higher return on investment and a less hostile legal climate. It is one of the better choices if you want to invest in New York state. Another issue that factors into the equation is the job market. Lots of cities have a great quality of life but almost no one can afford to live there.

The Syracuse housing market ranked 6.3 out of 10 for its job market. That’s better than rural and much of upstate New York. And it is why there is a slow trickle of people moving in to replace those who leave. That’s why the Syracuse real estate market has a net migration of 5 or a stable population. This is in sharp contrast to the depopulation seen in most Rust Belt cities. It also means Syracuse’s real estate investment properties will hold their value for the foreseeable future if they don’t appreciate it.

Albany real estate market

Albany is a steadily appreciating real estate market. While it isn’t as famous or hot as NYC, it offers an affordable entry point and a massive pool of perpetual renters. Though it may not be somewhere you want to live, many locals are choosing to stay and make their homes here. And that will continue to drive demand for Albany real estate investment properties as long as they are priced right.

Rochester real estate market

You can also consider Rochester. The Rochester real estate market is stable, offering slow appreciation, affordable properties to outsiders, and good returns. It has strong, long-term potential that is only buoyed if NYC collapses. And this is one of the reasons why being everything the Big Apple isn’t is in your favor.

The Rochester real estate market enjoys a healthy population profile. Roughly a quarter of the population consists of children, and many are likely to remain due to the healthy job market. It also means that the Rochester housing market won’t crash if the job market weakens the way San Francisco collapses whenever the tech bubble bursts. Others choose to remain here because of the low cost of living.


References

  • https://www.nysar.com/news/market-data/reports
  • https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center
  • https://www.zillow.com/new-york-ny/home-values
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/New-York_NY/overview
  • https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-housing-market-data/
  • https://www.redfin.com/city/30749/NY/New-York/housing-market
  • https://www.elliman.com/corporate-resources/market-reports

This post was originally published on 3rd party site mentioned on the title of this site

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