Tampa Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The Tampa housing market is an essential part of the Florida housing market, with a relatively high population density and close economic ties throughout the region. Tampa Real Estate is one of the most affordable in the state of Florida. It is also one of the hottest real estate markets for rental homes in the nation.

The Tampa housing market currently reflects the characteristics of a seller’s market. While the increase in New Listings suggests more choices for buyers, the decrease in Months Supply of Inventory and the strong growth in property prices lean towards a seller’s market, indicating potential competition and rising values. Without a significant increase in inventory, the seller’s market in Tampa seems unlikely to change in 2024.

Buy/sell, rent/lease residential &
commercials real estate properties.

How is the Tampa housing market doing currently?

Closed Sales Trends: The Tampa housing market witnessed a marginal decline in Closed Sales, showing a decrease of -2.0% year-over-year. Year-to-Date sales also reflect a downturn, down by -11.4% compared to the previous year, according to the data released by the Greater Tampa REALTORS®.

All-Cash Sales: An essential indicator of investor activity is the number of all-cash sales. Interestingly, this metric showed a modest increase of 0.7% year-over-year. Cash Sales constituted 27.2% of Closed Sales during the month, providing insight into the level of investor participation in the Tampa housing market.

Total Dollar Volume: Despite fluctuations in Closed Sales, the Total Dollar Volume in the Tampa housing market demonstrated resilience, surging by an impressive 12.5% to reach $1.5 Billion.

New Pending Sales: On the downside, New Pending Sales experienced a 6.5% decrease, pointing towards a potential cooling of market activity.

Tampa Housing Demand & Prices

Median Sale Price: The Median Sale Price for single-family homes in Tampa recorded a healthy uptick, rising by 3.8% to reach $410,000. This suggests a positive trajectory in property values within the region.

Average Sale Price: The Average Sale Price exhibited even more significant growth, increasing by an impressive 14.8% to $534,074. This robust surge in the average price indicates a strong demand for higher-priced properties in the Tampa housing market.

Median Time to Contract & Sale: Indicators of the efficiency of the housing market, the Median Time to Contract and Median Time to Sale, showed notable improvements. The former decreased by 14.8% year-over-year, indicating a faster transition from listing to contract. The latter saw a 12.2% reduction, with properties taking 65 days to sell on average.

Tampa Housing Supply

New Listings: Sellers in Tampa are increasingly putting their houses on the market, with New Listings experiencing a 5.7% uptick year-over-year.

Inventory & Months Supply: While the overall Inventory (Active Listings) decreased slightly by 0.8%, the Months Supply of Inventory witnessed an increase of 12.5%, reaching 2.7 months. This metric, often associated with market dynamics, refers to the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory given the current sales pace.

Market Dynamics: Historically, six months of supply is linked to moderate price appreciation. However, the current 2.7 months’ supply suggests a potential acceleration in price increases in the Tampa housing market.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Tampa?

No, the data indicates that home prices in Tampa are not dropping. Instead, both the Median Sale Price and Average Sale Price have shown positive growth, signaling a robust real estate market with increasing property values. Based on the provided data, there is no evidence to suggest an imminent housing market crash in Tampa. The market demonstrates stability, with moderate fluctuations in key indicators and positive trends in pricing and sales volume.

Tampa Housing Sales (Single-Family Homes)

  • Closed Sales decreased by -2.0% year-over-year.
  • Year-to-Date sales are also down -11.4% year-over-year.
  • One common measure of tracking investor activity is all-cash sales.
  • No. of cash sales was up 0.7% year-over-year.
  • The percentage of Closed Sales during the month which were Cash Sales was 27.2%.
  • It shows how active investors are in the Tampa housing market.
  • Total Dollar Volume is up 12.5% to $1.5 Billion.
  • New Pending Sales are down 6.5%.

Tampa Housing Demand & Prices (Single-Family Homes)

  • The Median Sale Price increased by 3.8% to $410,000.
  • The Average Sale Price increased by 14.8% to $534,074.
  • Median Time to Contract is 23 days, down 14.8% year-over-year.
  • It quantifies the time between the initial listing and the signing of the contract that leads to the sale.
  • Median Time to Sale is 65 Days, down 12.2%.

Tampa Housing Supply (Single-Family Homes)

  • More sellers are putting their houses on the market in Tampa.
  • New Listings are up 5.7% year-over-year.
  • Inventory (Active Listings) is down by 0.8%.
  • Months Supply of Inventory is 2.7 months, an increase of 12.5%.
  • It refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace.
  • Six months of supply has historically been associated with moderate price appreciation, while a lower level of months’ supply tends to accelerate price increases.

Tampa Housing Market Forecast for 2024

What are the Tampa real estate market predictions? Based on the data and market forecast, there is no indication of an imminent housing market crash in Tampa. The positive one-year forecast and the healthy balance between supply and demand suggest a stable and sustainable real estate environment.

According to Zillow, as of December 31, 2023, the average home value in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area stands at $372,746, reflecting a 1.0% increase over the past year. Homes in this region typically go pending within an impressive 20 days.

Key Market Metrics (Data through December 31, 2023)

  • 1-year Market Forecast (December 31, 2023): +5.3%
  • For Sale Inventory (November 30, 2023): 14,271
  • New Listings (November 30, 2023): 4,693
  • Median Sale to List Ratio (November 30, 2023): 0.983
  • Median Sale Price (November 30, 2023): $357,667
  • Median List Price (November 30, 2023): $413,666
  • Percent of Sales Over List Price (November 30, 2023): 17.1%
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price (November 30, 2023): 62.8%

Analysis of Market Trends

Examining the market forecast, the +5.3% one-year projection signals optimism for homeowners and potential sellers. The substantial 14,271 for-sale inventory and 4,693 new listings as of November 30, 2023, suggest a vibrant market with ample opportunities.

Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

The current Tampa housing market leans towards being a seller’s market due to factors such as the relatively low median days on market (20 days) and a median sale to list ratio of 0.983. These indicators signify high demand and competitiveness among buyers, providing sellers with advantageous conditions.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House?

For potential homebuyers, the current market conditions in Tampa may present challenges, given the high competition and a significant percentage of sales going over list price (17.1%). However, individual circumstances and preferences should guide decisions, and consulting with a real estate professional is advisable for personalized advice.

As we navigate the Tampa housing market landscape, the insights provided by Zillow offer valuable perspectives for both buyers and sellers, shaping informed decisions in this dynamic real estate environment.

Tampa Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Source: Zillow

Tampa Real Estate Investment Overview

Now that you know where Tampa is, you probably want to know why we’re recommending it to real estate investors. Should you consider Tampa real estate investment? Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Tampa is a good investment. You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for real estate investors and buyers.

Let’s talk a bit about Tampa before we discuss what lies ahead for investors and homebuyers. Tampa is a minimally walkable city in Hillsborough County with a population of approximately 335,749 people. With a population of more than 4 million, the Greater Tampa Bay area includes the Tampa and Sarasota metro areas. It is not only an attractive metropolitan area but is also one of the most frequently visited tourist destinations. One of the goals of investing in real estate is to get a positive return on the investment when the investor decides to sell the property in the future.

If the appreciation rate is high enough, the extra value of the house in a few years will offset the upfront costs of buying. If the appreciation rate is too low then it won’t. Tampa properties have a track record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U.S. owing to the growth in employment opportunities. This has led to a persistent imbalance between demand and supply. There is a continuing housing shortage leading to a surge in home prices in this region.

Tampa is gaining popularity owing to its hot housing market where several investors have been putting in their stakes. The rental market is very strong in Tampa Bay. It is one of the top locations for buying rental property in Florida. There are several economic and development prospects attached to this market and Tampa, FL is of the hottest real estate markets in the U.S. in 2020.

If you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Tampa real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents. Perhaps you are looking for a slightly different hold-over, an investment property in Tampa that you might move into or sell at retirement in the future. Either way, knowing your profit potential and purpose is the first thing to consider.

Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Tampa real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.

Growing Tampa Bay Metro Area

Tampa, Florida is one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas of the country with a busy downtown area, a range of eateries, and tourist attractions. Investors who choose this market will experience high growth in their investments as it is currently one of the hottest grounds for residential and commercial properties. It also offers a great overall quality of life making it a popular residential for many family units. It is not only a growing real estate market, but it is also one of the most popular recreational hubs of the city.

People choose to reside here because of the great prospects of life that it offers, and this directly impacts the Tampa real estate market. The healthcare, education, and transportation facilities in Tampa are also impeccable which is why families with young children and many retirees prefer Tampa and are choosing to reside in Tampa since it offers them an upgraded quality of life. Not only that, but Tampa also hosts several entertainment activities for people of all age groups depending on their tastes.

Rising Home Prices & Rents

The prices of residential properties in Tampa are growing at a fast pace, though they are still affordable compared to other real estate markets in the country. This is the time for investors to get hold of properties and keep them for some time before selling them at a higher price since Tampa real estate will appreciate them over the next year. Investors can buy properties at lower rates right now and rent them out to new residents of the city to improve their cash flows.

Later on, when the selling price of homes increases then they can sell out to better prospects. This means that the Tampa real estate market is promising for short-term leases at this point, including rental homes and tourist accommodations. If you only have 10% to put down, a single-family home would be a better option for buying an investment property. It just makes sense when you consider it will be easier to get a loan, and there are no restrictions on rentals.

The Zumper Tampa Metro Area Report analyzed active listings last month across the metro cities to show the most and least expensive cities and cities with the fastest growing rents. The Florida one bedroom median rent was $1,638 last month. Venice was the most expensive city with one bedrooms priced at $2,250 while Winter Haven ranked as the most affordable city with rent at $1,230.

The best place to buy rental property is about finding growing markets. Cities like Sarasota & Largo are good for investors looking to get started with rental property ownership at an affordable price. These cities look good for rental property investment this year as rents are growing over there. These trends provide a macro look at the growing rental demand. Each real estate market has its own unique supply-demand dynamics with unique neighborhoods that present their own opportunities for investors.

Here are the best areas to invest in a rental property in the Tampa Metro Area. Most of these places have the same things in common, including rising rents and increasing property values.

The Fastest Growing Rental Markets in the Tampa Metro Area (Year-over-Year)

  • Venice had the fastest growing rent, up 33.1% since this time last year.
  • Temple Terrace saw rent climb 8.9%, making it second.
  • Dunedin was third with rent jumping 8.8%.

The Fastest Growing Rental Markets in the Tampa Metro Area (Month-over-Month)

  • Winter Haven had the largest monthly growth rate, up 4.2%.
  • Lakeland was second with rent climbing 2.3% last month.
  • Lutz saw rent increase 1.3%, making it third.
Tampa Rental Market TrendsTampa Rental Market Trends
Source: Zumper

Tampa’s Booming Economy

Job growth in an area is a sure way of boosting its real estate market for both residential and commercial properties. Tampa’s real estate market has also experienced similar growth in requirements for single and family homes since more people are moving to this flourishing metropolitan area for jobs. The influx of people into Tampa is especially occasioned by the fact that it is one of the fastest-growing job hubs in the country. Tampa has the headquarters of four Fortune 500 companies which makes it a moderately attractive city for work and economic growth.

In addition to this, many entrepreneurs and small businesses are also making their way to Tampa in the search for better prospects and lesser expenses for running their start-ups. Acquiring residential spaces is one of the earliest priorities for such professionals when they move here. Tampa has a very diverse economy with financial services, STEM, health care, research, education, tourism, beaches, and military bases all making significant contributions to jobs and growth.

Tampa Bay’s Tourist Attraction

There are several nature parks, landmarks, museums, and eateries for tourists to visit in Tampa. Tourist influx also means an increase in short-term residential contracts, which is a selling point of the Tampa real estate market in 2020. Main tourist attractions include Big Cat Rescue, Busch Gardens Florida, Eureka Springs Park, and Tampa-Bay History Center among many others. Growing tourism has a tremendously positive effect on the real estate in Tampa, FL.

The vibrant living environment of the city owes a great deal to its comfortable temperature. The average temperature is 99 F which is extremely moderate and allows for better productivity in human lives. The weather conditions are also an important factor when it comes to motivating people to move here.

Cost of Living in Tampa

Since there is prospective growth in the Tampa real estate market, people from all over the country are considering a move here. One of the most important reasons is the affordable cost of living in Tampa compared to other cities. This has made it a top choice for retirees and small families that are looking for residence and to generally improve the quality of their life.

  • Tampa, Florida’s cost of living is 5% lower than the national average
  • Tampa’s housing expenses are 23% lower than the national average and the utility prices are 16% higher than the national average.
  • Transportation expenses like bus fares and gas prices are 6% higher than the national average.
  • Healthcare in Tampa is 2% lower than the national average.

Maybe you have done a bit of real estate investing in Tampa but want to take things further and make it into more than a hobby on the side. It’s only wise to think about how you can and should be investing your money. In any property investment, cash flow is gold. Compared to markets in Atlanta, Nashville, and Cleveland, Tampa has higher prospects when it comes to residential and commercial property investments. The Tampa real estate market has been projected to grow steadily during 2020. Investors are recommended to buy Tampa investment properties now and hold on to them until good price appreciation for maximum return on investment.

The Tampa housing market has been seeing constant development for the last two years, a trend that does not seem to be stopping any time soon. Realtor.com had rated the top 100 markets according to factors including employment growth, household growth, and unemployment. In all categories, the Tampa real estate market fares considerably better than the national average. The one category in which Tampa FL real estate market especially shines is new-home starts, predicted to soar by more than 20 percent next year. That would ease one of the biggest constraints on the local real estate market – a shortage of homes for sale.

The biggest demand will continue to be for “moderately priced homes” — those under $300,000 in most places but the $500,000 to $800,000 range inexpensive South Tampa. Good cash flow from Tampa investment properties means the investment is, needless to say, profitable. A bad cash flow, on the other hand, means you won’t have money on hand to repay your debt. Therefore, finding a good Tampa real estate investment opportunity would be key to your success. If you invest wisely in Tampa real estate, you could secure your future.

The three most important factors when buying real estate anywhere are location, location, and location. The location creates desirability. Desirability brings demand. There should be a natural and upcoming high demand for rental properties. Demand would raise the price of your Tampa investment real estate and you should be able to flip it for a lump sum profit.

The neighborhoods in Tampa must be safe to live in and should have a low crime rate. The neighborhoods should be close to basic amenities, public services, schools, and shopping malls. Some of the best neighborhoods in Tampa, Florida are Old Seminole Heights, Sun Bay South, Tampa Palms, Spring Hill, Tampa Heights, Oldsmar, Grand Hampton, Davis Islands, Palma Ceia, Ybor City Historic District, Parrish, South Tampa, Hyde Park, Tampa Palms, Westchase, Temple Terrace, Riverside Heights, and New Tampa.

Apart from the Tampa real estate market, you can also invest in another hot market in Ocala, Florida. Ocala is an affordable real estate market for investors who can still reap a decent return on investment. The area has recovered from the Great Recession, and several factors will insulate it from a future downturn. The Ocala housing market is buoyed by several nearly recession-proof industries. It is quite affordable for investors compared to the rest of Florida markets like Tampa where the median home value is $221,500. The median home price in Ocala is $163,179. You can buy several homes in the Ocala FL real estate market for the price you would of one mid-market condo in Miami.

Also, given that this is Florida, it shouldn’t be surprising that retirees are a disproportionately large source of demand for Ocala rental houses. A large number of retirees here creates significant demand for medical professionals and caregivers. The horse-centered community offers several good-paying jobs to trainers, veterinarians, and animal caregivers. There are several manufacturers in the area such as mobile home manufacturers and EMS vehicle makers.

Another market that we suggest is the housing market in Lakeland, Florida. The Lakeland FL real estate market presents the perfect balance of currently affordable real estate for buyers and future growth. We can expect the population of the area to grow rapidly, and the renting population will grow even faster. The time to buy real estate in Lakeland is now. While the Lakeland FL real estate market is cheaper than Orlando and Tampa, it is not a good overall value given the lower average wages of its residents.

That explains why U.S. News and World Report gave the city an index score of 5.5 out of ten. This is due to the average resident earning around $23,000 a year, several thousand less than the U.S. average. Median household incomes are no better. The median household income in Lakeland, Florida is around $40,000, more than ten thousand dollars below the national average. This creates a strong demand for Lakeland rental homes, especially those that low-income residents can afford.

Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process. They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates.

NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS has extensive experience investing in turnkey real estate and cash-flow properties. We strive to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in many other growth markets in the United States. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing the profitability of your investment property in Tampa, Florida.

Consult with one of the investment counselors who can help build you a custom portfolio of Tampa turnkey properties. These are “Cash-Flow Rental Properties” located in some of the best neighborhoods of Tampa.

Not just limited to Tampa or Florida but you can also invest in some of the best real estate markets in the United States. All you have to do is fill up this form and schedule a consultation at your convenience. We’re standing by to help you take the guesswork out of real estate investing. By researching and structuring complete Tampa turnkey real estate investments, we help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.

Let us know which real estate markets in the United States you consider best for real estate investing! 


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