Seattle Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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How is the Seattle housing market doing currently? In Seattle’s housing market, brokers reported 499 closed sales in November, signaling a -9.44% year-over-year decrease. A critical indicator of market health, the median sales price in Seattle witnessed a 3% increase, reaching $850,000. In comparison, the median price at the same time last year was $824,900. While the data indicates a year-over-year decrease in closed sales for both Seattle and King County, it’s crucial to interpret this within the broader context of market dynamics.

A slight decline in closed sales does not necessarily signal a cooling-off period. Multiple factors, including seasonality, interest rates, and economic conditions, contribute to market fluctuations.  Furthermore, the uptick in median sales prices in both Seattle and King County suggests persistent demand and potential competition for available properties.


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Is Seattle a Seller’s Housing Market?

Seattle, WA is currently positioned as a seller’s market in November 2023. This means that the demand for homes surpasses the available inventory. The city’s real estate landscape is witnessing a scenario where more people are eager to buy properties than there are homes available, presenting a unique market dynamic.

The following Seattle housing market trends are based on single-family, condo, and townhome properties listed for sale on Realtor.com. Land, multi-unit, and other property types are excluded.

Median Listing Home Price Stability

As of November 2023, the median listing home price in Seattle, WA stands at a sturdy $798,000, showing remarkable stability with no significant year-over-year fluctuations. This steadfastness reflects the resilience of the real estate market in the city.

Examining further, the median listing home price per square foot is $584, emphasizing the value per unit area. In tandem, the median home sold price is $836,300, underlining the actual transaction prices in the Seattle housing market. These figures provide a nuanced perspective on the diverse range of properties available in the city.

Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 100%

Seattle, WA boasts a robust real estate market where homes sell for approximately the asking price. The sale-to-list price ratio is a remarkable 100%, signifying a balanced relationship between sellers and buyers. This equilibrium showcases the confidence and agreement in property valuations within the Seattle housing market.

Median Days on Market: 55 Days

Time is of the essence in the Seattle housing market. On average, homes in Seattle, WA sell after 55 days on the market. This metric serves as a key indicator of market activity and buyer-seller interactions. It’s essential to note that the trend for median days on the market has experienced a slight increase since the previous month and a modest uptick compared to the same period last year.

Monthly Market Update: November 2023

Northwest MLS, recognized as the most reliable source for up-to-date market listing data in Washington state, has unveiled its comprehensive Market Snapshot for November 2023. Let’s delve into the key highlights and insights shaping the real estate landscape in the region.

Market Recap

Interest Rates: In a notable development, a slight decrease in interest rates has injected cautious optimism into the real estate market. As of December 1, 2023, interest rates stand at 7.2%, showcasing a decline from 7.8% in October 2023. This shift, if sustained, holds the potential for positive market dynamics.

Home Prices: Despite the encouraging shift in interest rates, the persistent decline in seasonal inventory continues to exert upward pressure on home prices. In November 2023, home prices experienced a significant increase of 4.6% compared to November 2022.

  • Closed Sales: NWMLS brokers reported 4,367 closed sales in November 2023, marking a 16% decrease from the same period in 2022 (5,194).
  • Regional Variances: While 19 out of 26 counties observed a decrease in the number of homes sold, seven counties, including Grant, Okanogan, Kittitas, Walla Walla, San Juan, Adams, and Ferry, witnessed a year-over-year increase.
  • Median Sales Price: The median sales price exhibited a year-over-year increase in 21 of the 26 total counties. Overall, the median price for homes sold in November 2023 reached $601,341, a 4.6% uptick from November 2022.

Breaking down the data further, the three counties with the highest median-priced homes sold were San Juan ($975,000), King ($799,925), and Snohomish ($703,635). Conversely, Grant ($327,999), Ferry ($313,750), and Adams ($221,500) recorded the lowest median-priced homes sold.

Active Property Listings: November 2023 witnessed a 17% decrease in the number of active property listings compared to the same month in the previous year. The total volume of homes for sale continues to dwindle, with 19 out of 26 counties experiencing a year-over-year decrease.

Market Dynamics and Challenges: While sales transactions and housing inventory levels typically decline during the fall and winter months, the ongoing seasonal slowdown is exacerbated by the prevailing high-interest rate environment for buyers relying on mortgages.

Insights from Mason Virant: Mason Virant, Associate Director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at The University of Washington, provided valuable insights. “With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently just over 7.2%, the purchasing power of prospective buyers remains stunted relative to a few short years ago. Moreover, current owners with low-rate mortgages continue to be reluctant to sell. This has led to a continued decline in year-over-year transaction volume and the inventory levels in the market.”

King County Housing Market Trends

Below is the most recent Seattle Housing Market Report released by “Northwest MLS.” The report compares the key housing metrics of the City of Seattle (which is part of King County).

Here are the numbers (RESIDENTIAL+CONDO) for November 2023 compared with November 2022.

ACTIVE LISTINGS FOR SALE

  • The total active listings in Seattle were 1,256.
  • This represents a decrease of 9.31% as compared to November 2022.
  • The total active listings in All of King County were 2,833.
  • This represents a drop of 21.28% as compared to November 2022.

CLOSED SALES

  • 499 closed sales were registered by brokers in Seattle.
  • This represents a year-over-year decrease of -9.44%.
  • 1,474 closed sales were registered in All of King County.
  • This represents a year-over-year decrease of -11.04%.

PENDING SALES

  • 531 pending sales were registered by brokers in Seattle.
  • This represents a decrease of -8.13% from the same month a year ago.
  • 1,547 pending sales were registered in All of King County.
  • This represents a decrease of -4.21% from the same month a year ago.

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

  • Seattle’s median sales price increased by 3% to $850,000.
  • Last year, at this time, the median price in Seattle was $824,900.
  • King County’s median price increased by 6.66% to $799,925.
  • Last year, at this time, the median price in King County was $750,000 .

MONTHS OF INVENTORY (MOI)

  • 2.52 months represents the number in Seattle.
  • Months of supply in All of King County is 1.92.
  • 6 months of supply is when you have a balanced real estate market. 
  • This shows that this region continues to be a seller’s housing market.

Why is the Seattle Housing Market So Hot?

Seattle’s housing market is red hot, and it’s due to the influx of high-paid tech employees from companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. These employees have been seeking more spacious homes with office areas to work remotely during the pandemic, and they have the financial resources to outcompete other buyers and drive up home prices.

Despite an increase in inventory, the Puget Sound region’s housing market remains tight, with less than two months of supply. This means the region continues to be a seller’s market, with a limited number of homes available to meet the high demand from buyers. As a result, home prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.

The city’s vibrant cultural scene, scenic beauty, and excellent quality of life also make it an attractive place to live. Despite the rising prices, Seattle’s housing market continues to attract buyers from all over the country. The city’s strong job market, diverse economy, and progressive values make it a desirable destination for people from different backgrounds and professions. This has resulted in a highly competitive real estate market, where homes are selling quickly and above asking prices.

However, the shortage of housing inventory has become a major concern for the city’s policymakers, as it has led to affordability issues and exclusionary zoning practices. To address these challenges, Seattle has launched several initiatives, such as increasing the supply of affordable housing, promoting sustainable development, and reforming zoning laws. These efforts aim to ensure that Seattle remains an inclusive and livable city for all its residents, regardless of their income or background.

ALSO READ: Which Are The Hottest Markets in Seattle?

ALSO READ: Washington State Housing Market Forecast

Seattle Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

The Seattle housing market has long been a subject of interest due to its dynamic nature and its influence on the broader Pacific Northwest economy. In recent times, the market has shown some intriguing trends that prompt us to examine the factors driving the current state and future trajectory of the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue housing market.

Overview of Current Market Trends

As of October 31, 2023, Zillow’s comprehensive data provides valuable insights into the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue housing market. Let’s delve into the key metrics shaping the current real estate landscape in the region.

  • Average Home Value: The average home value in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area is currently $699,760, reflecting a 1.2% decrease over the past year.
  • Days on Market: Homes in the region go to pending in an impressive 10 days, showcasing the brisk pace of the market.

Market Forecast and Inventory

Zillow’s market forecast provides a glimpse into the future trajectory of the Seattle housing market, offering valuable information for both buyers and sellers.

  • 1-Year Market Forecast: Zillow’s projection for the coming year indicates a -1.7% change in the market as of October 31, 2023.
  • For Sale Inventory: As of the same date, there are 7,622 properties listed for sale in the Seattle area.
  • New Listings: The market saw 3,301 new listings added as of October 31, 2023.

Sale Metrics and Pricing Trends

Understanding the median sale price, list price, and the dynamics of sales transactions provides a comprehensive view of the market’s health and competitiveness.

  • Median Sale to List Ratio: As of September 30, 2023, the median sale to list ratio stands at a noteworthy 1.000.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price for homes in the Seattle area, as of September 30, 2023, is $676,083.
  • Median List Price: Looking at the current market, the median list price as of October 31, 2023, is $731,317.

Market Dynamics and Buyer-Seller Interactions

The interplay between list prices, sale prices, and the percentage of sales over and under list prices provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of the Seattle housing market.

  • Percent of Sales Over List Price: As of September 30, 2023, 42.0% of sales in the region were over the list price.
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price: Conversely, 35.2% of sales during the same period were under the list price.

Will the Seattle Housing Market Crash?

Given the current data and Zillow’s forecast, there is no indication of an imminent housing market crash in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area. The projected -1.7% change suggests a relatively stable market, and the brisk pace of sales, along with the median sale to list ratio, indicates healthy buyer interest and confidence.

Seattle Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024
Source: Zillow

REFERENCES

  • https://www.nwmls.com/
  • https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa/home-values
  • https://www.redfin.com/news/seattle-homes-sold-above-list-price/
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Seattle_WA/overview
  • https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/wa/seattle
  • https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/wa/seattle/real-estate
  • https://seattlerealestatenews.com/category/info/seattle-monthly-housing-news
  • https://www.seattlepi.com/coronavirus/article/best-time-to-buy-or-sell-a-house-during-pandemic-15287608.php

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