San Diego Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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San Diego Housing Market

The challenges faced by the San Diego housing market in November underscore the impact of borrowing costs on home sales. San Diego, with its mixed trends, presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Let us discuss the market trends in detail.

According to the latest report from the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), as of November 2023, existing single-family home sales in California totaled 223,940 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, marking a 7.4% decline from October and a 5.8% drop from November 2022. The statewide median home price was $822,200, showing a 2.2% decrease from October but a 6.2% increase from November 2022. Year-to-date statewide home sales saw a significant decline of 25.9% in November.

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San Diego Housing Market Trends – November 2023

How is the housing market doing currently?

  • Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes: In November 2023, the median sold price for existing single-family homes in San Diego was $952,000, reflecting a 1.7% month-to-month increase from October.
  • Sales Performance: San Diego experienced a month-to-month decline of 16.9% in home sales and a year-over-year decrease of 12.2%.
  • Yearly Comparisons: Comparing November 2023 with the same month in 2022, San Diego’s median home price showed a robust year-over-year increase of 10.1%.

Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

Given the substantial month-to-month and year-over-year declines in home sales, it appears that San Diego is currently facing a buyer’s market. The reduced demand and increased inventory create an environment where buyers have more negotiating power.

Are Home Prices Dropping in San Diego?

While the median home price in San Diego experienced a slight month-to-month increase, the year-over-year data paints a different picture. With a robust 10.1% surge in median home prices from November 2022, it can be concluded that, despite short-term fluctuations, home prices in San Diego are not dropping but rather exhibiting long-term growth.

Is It Wise to Buy a House in San Diego Right Now?

Considering the current dynamics of the San Diego housing market, the decision to buy a house should be approached with a nuanced perspective. The slight month-to-month decline in median prices could present an opportunity for potential buyers looking for a favorable entry point.

However, it’s essential to weigh this against the significant year-over-year growth, indicating a generally appreciating market. Additionally, factors such as interest rates and personal financial considerations play a crucial role in determining the wisdom of buying a house at any given moment. As always, consulting with real estate professionals and staying informed about market trends is vital for making informed decisions.

San Diego Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

As of November 30, 2023, Zillow provides valuable insights into the San Diego-Carlsbad housing market, shedding light on key metrics that shape the real estate landscape in the region.

  • Average Home Value: The average home value in San Diego-Carlsbad stands at $894,751, reflecting a notable 5.7% increase over the past year.
  • Pending Time: Homes in the area go pending in approximately 13 days, indicating a fast-paced and competitive market.

Market Statistics and Projections:

  • 1-Year Market Forecast (November 30, 2023): Zillow’s forecast suggests a modest growth of 0.1% in the San Diego-Carlsbad housing market over the next year.
  • Inventory and Listings: As of November 30, 2023, there are 4,479 homes for sale, with 1,875 new listings, indicating a dynamic and active market.
  • Sale to List Ratio: The median sale to list ratio as of October 31, 2023, is 1.000, underlining a balanced market where sale prices closely align with list prices.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price, recorded on October 31, 2023, is $858,667, providing a benchmark for current property values.
  • Median List Price: Zillow reports a median list price of $941,300 as of November 30, 2023, indicating sellers’ expectations in the current market.
  • Percent of Sales Over/Under List Price: As of October 31, 2023, 49.3% of sales are over list price, highlighting competitiveness, while 36.9% are under list price, indicating room for negotiation.

Will the San Diego Housing Market Crash?

Considering the current market indicators and Zillow’s conservative 0.1% 1-year forecast, the San Diego-Carlsbad housing market appears to be stable and not prone to an imminent crash. The balance in the sale to list ratio and the sustained demand reflected in the percentage of sales over list price contribute to a positive outlook.

Note: All data is accurate as of the specified dates and is subject to change based on market dynamics.

San Diego Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024San Diego Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024
Source: Zillow

Greater San Diego Area Housing Market Report

The Greater San Diego housing market, as detailed in the recent report by the Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS®, unveils a nuanced landscape marked by shifts in closed sales, pending sales, inventory, median sales prices, days on market, and supply for both detached and attached homes.

Closed Sales Performance:

  • Detached Homes: Closed sales for detached homes decreased by 16.6%, indicating a notable decline in this segment of the market.
  • Attached Homes: The market for attached homes experienced a 9.9% decrease in closed sales, contributing to the overall contraction in sales activity.

Pending Sales Dynamics:

  • Detached Homes: Pending sales for detached homes saw a 13.3% decrease, reflecting a slowdown in the momentum of potential transactions.
  • Attached Homes: In contrast, pending sales for attached homes increased by 2.1%, showcasing resilience in this particular housing segment.

Inventory Trends:

  • Detached Homes: The inventory for detached homes surged by a substantial 53.3%, indicating an influx of available properties in this category.
  • Attached Homes: Inventory for attached homes experienced an even more significant increase of 77.4%, pointing to a notable expansion in the options for potential buyers.

Median Sales Price Movements:

  • Detached Homes: The median sales price for detached homes rose by 11.4%, reaching an impressive $980,000.
  • Attached Homes: Attached homes also witnessed a noteworthy 11.3% increase in median sales price, reaching $667,500.

Days on Market and Supply:

  • Detached Homes: Days on market for detached homes decreased by 20.0%, reflecting a quicker pace of sales. Meanwhile, supply increased by a substantial 94.7%.
  • Attached Homes: Attached homes experienced a 15.6% reduction in days on market, coupled with a significant 120.0% increase in supply.

Interpreting the Data:

The data presented in the Greater San Diego Area Housing Market Report indicates a complex and evolving real estate landscape. While certain segments, such as detached homes, have witnessed declines in closed and pending sales, the surge in inventory might provide opportunities for buyers. The substantial increase in median sales prices suggests robust demand despite the challenges faced by the market.

The San Diego real estate market has been ranked among the ten most expensive real estate markets in the country, though it ranks below several other West Coast cities. This creates massive demand for San Diego rental properties by those who simply cannot afford to buy homes.

The rental market will continue to grow as the city grows an estimated 500,000 population by 2050, adding tens of thousands each year. The median rent in San Diego is $2700. The rent you’d receive on single-family San Diego rental properties would, of course, be much higher.

Renters vs. Owners in San Diego

San Diego’s property rental market is influenced by several factors, including the local economy, job opportunities, and the overall demand for housing. It’s a city known for its mix of urban and suburban neighborhoods, each with its own rental and ownership dynamics.

San Diego had a diverse housing landscape with a mix of renters and property owners.

  • Renters: San Diego has a significant population of renters, comprising individuals and families who lease residential properties. This includes apartments, condominiums, townhouses, and single-family homes. The exact percentage of renters relative to property owners can vary by neighborhood and demographic factors.
  • Owners: San Diego also has a substantial number of property owners. These are individuals or entities who own residential properties and may either live in their properties or lease them out to renters. Property owners contribute to the diversity of the city’s housing options.

Size of the Rental Market

The size of the San Diego property rental market is substantial, with a wide range of rental properties available to residents. This market includes apartments, houses, and various types of housing units. The exact size of the rental market can fluctuate based on factors like population growth, economic conditions, and housing development trends.

Real estate agencies, rental platforms, and government agencies often track and report on the status of the rental market, offering detailed insights into its size and dynamics.

For the most up-to-date and specific information regarding the current state of the San Diego property rental market, including the number of renters and property owners, it’s recommended to refer to the latest reports and data from sources like local real estate associations, government housing agencies, and real estate websites.

San Diego’s property rental market is an essential component of the city’s real estate landscape, offering a wide range of housing options to its diverse population.

San Diego County shows it has a Median Gross Rent of $1,842 which is the third most of all other counties in the greater region. Comparing rental rates to the United States average of $1,163, San Diego County is 58.4% larger. Also, measured against the state of California, rental rates of $1,698, San Diego County is 8.5% larger.

San Diego Apartment Rent Prices

As of November 2023, the rental market in San Diego, California exhibits some notable trends and changes:

Average Rent Prices

The average rent for different types of apartments in San Diego is as follows:

  • Rent prices for all bedroom counts and property types in San Diego, CA have increased by 3% in the last month and have decreased by 2% in the last year.
  • $3.43 is the average price per square foot

Housing Units and Occupancy

In terms of occupied housing units, San Diego has the following distribution:

  • Renter-occupied Households: Renter-occupied households make up 53% of the housing units in San Diego, indicating a significant presence of renters in the city.
  • Owner-occupied Households: Owner-occupied households account for 48% of the housing units, highlighting a balanced mix of homeowners in the area.

Affordable and Expensive Neighborhoods

San Diego’s neighborhoods offer a range of rental prices, making it accessible for various budgets:

The Most Affordable Neighborhoods:

  • Bay Park: The average rent in Bay Park is $2,135 per month.
  • University Heights: In University Heights, the average rent is around $2,200 per month.
  • North Park: North Park offers an average rent of approximately $2,273 per month.

The Most Expensive Neighborhoods:

  • Carmel Valley: Carmel Valley is one of the more expensive neighborhoods, with an average rent of $2,942 per month.
  • Mission Valley East: In Mission Valley East, the average rent can go for $2,894 per month.
  • Mission Beach: Mission Beach has an average rent of $2,850 per month.

Popular Neighborhoods

Some neighborhoods in San Diego are particularly popular among renters:

  • Mission Beach: Mission Beach tops the list with 1,115 listings, making it a sought-after area for renters.
  • Pacific Beach: Pacific Beach is also a popular choice, offering 760 listings for prospective renters.
  • Ocean Beach: Ocean Beach features 295 places for rent, making it a vibrant neighborhood for renters.

These insights provide a snapshot of the current rental market in San Diego. Rental prices have seen some fluctuations in recent months, with variations in different apartment types. The city offers a range of neighborhoods to suit different budgets and preferences, with a balanced mix of renters and homeowners.



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