Ohio Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The Ohio housing market has been a topic of interest for potential buyers, sellers, and investors alike. There is no immediate sign of a market crash based on the available data. As of the latest available data from October 2023, Ohio’s housing market has experienced a decline in the number of homes sold compared to the same period in the previous year.

This dip raises questions about the stability of the market. However, it’s crucial to note that a reduction in sales doesn’t necessarily equate to an imminent crash. Market dynamics are multifaceted, and various factors contribute to its overall health.

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How is the Ohio housing market doing currently?

Ohio’s real estate landscape witnessed a nuanced shift in October 2023, with a notable dip in the number of homes sold compared to the same period the previous year. This dynamic, coupled with a continuous surge in average prices, paints a comprehensive picture of the state’s housing market, as reported by Ohio REALTORS.

Decline in Home Sales

According to the data compiled by Ohio REALTORS, the total homes sold in October 2023 numbered 11,041, representing a 9.2% decline from the 12,165 sales recorded in October 2022. This downward trend suggests a shift in the market dynamics, prompting a closer look at the factors influencing this change.

Rising Average Prices

While the number of home sales experienced a decrease, the average sales price across Ohio in October 2023 witnessed a commendable uptick. The average price reached $273,683, marking a 7.3% increase from the $254,988 recorded in October 2022. This surge in prices highlights the resilience of the real estate market even in the face of declining sales, showcasing a demand for premium properties.

Market Trends and Influences

Ohio REALTORS President Ralph Mantica weighed in on the market dynamics, acknowledging the impact of higher interest rates and a dwindling inventory. He noted, “Ohio’s housing market reflects ongoing trends, including higher interest rates and lower inventory while at the same time, escalating home prices, which indicate a noteworthy increase in equity.”

This complex scenario poses both challenges and opportunities for prospective buyers and sellers. The escalating home prices contribute to increased equity, presenting a potential advantage for sellers. On the flip side, the higher interest rates and lower inventory can pose challenges for buyers looking to enter the market.

Ralph Mantica emphasized the role of Ohio REALTORS in navigating these intricate market dynamics. He stated, “An Ohio REALTOR serves as a professional partner, guiding buyers and sellers through the intricate process of homebuying and selling, to successfully achieve their housing goals.” This highlights the importance of seeking professional guidance to navigate the challenges and seize opportunities in the current real estate landscape.

Regional Variances

Examining the regional landscape, it’s noteworthy that 10 out of the 15 markets tracked experienced an increase in average prices for the month compared to October 2022. This regional variance underscores the diverse nature of Ohio’s real estate market, with different areas exhibiting unique trends and influences.

Ohio Housing Market Forecast: Will it Crash?

Despite record-high mortgage rates, Ohio’s real estate market is still among the hottest in the country. As a result of the increased rates, buyers now have a better chance of having their offers approved, although it is still a seller’s market. The market is just starting to settle down. It’s not like there is a crash coming in Ohio’s housing market.

Experts say there are still huge hurdles in the state’s housing market, which are already hurting other issues for people seeking to find a place to live, but the demand for houses in Ohio is starting to level off, with a fall in sales and a lesser increase in the average price. Central Ohio is anchored by Columbus, the state capital and the 15th largest city in the country.

Current Market Overview

According to Zillow, as of December 31, 2023, the average home value in Ohio stands at $213,149, reflecting a notable 5.4% increase over the past year. Homes are swiftly going to pending status in approximately 12 days, indicating a dynamic and competitive market.

  • For Sale Inventory: The market boasts a substantial 24,746 homes for sale as of December 31, 2023.
  • New Listings: There have been 8,940 new listings, showcasing a vibrant influx of properties into the market.
  • Median Sale to List Ratio: As of November 30, 2023, the median sale to list ratio is 1.000, underlining the equilibrium between listed and sold prices.
  • Median Sale Price: The median sale price, recorded on November 30, 2023, stands at $190,333, providing valuable insights into the pricing trends.
  • Median List Price: The median list price, as of December 31, 2023, is $229,633, indicating the expectations of sellers in the market.
  • Percent of Sales Over/Under List Price: Notably, 37.4% of sales are over list price, while 45.5% are under list price, showcasing the diversity in pricing strategies and negotiations.

Top 10 Areas in Ohio with Highest Projected Price Increases in 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, specific regions in Ohio are anticipated to experience significant growth in home prices.

  • Springfield, OH: This metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is expected to see a gradual increase, starting at 0.2% on January 31, 2024, and reaching 5% by December 31, 2024.
  • Mansfield, OH: With a starting point of 0.2% on January 31, 2024, the MSA is forecasted to climb to 0.9% by March and eventually 5% by December 31, 2024.
  • Zanesville, OH: This area is projected to experience a rise from 0.3% on January 31, 2024, to 1.1% by March and a substantial 4.9% by December 31, 2024.
  • Wilmington, OH: Anticipated growth starts at 0.3% in January, progresses to 1.2% in March, and culminates in 4.8% by the end of December 2024.
  • Van Wert, OH: This region is forecasted to witness a gradual increase, commencing at 0.5% on January 31, 2024, and reaching 1.3% by March, with a final projection of 4.8% by December 31, 2024.
  • Bucyrus, OH: The Bucyrus metropolitan statistical area (MSA) is projected to experience a slight dip of -0.1% by December 31, 2023. However, it is expected to rebound and show positive growth, reaching 0.5% by March and a more substantial 4.7% by the end of December 2024.
  • Columbus, OH: Ohio’s capital city, Columbus, is forecasted to start the year with a modest increase of 0.1% on December 31, 2023. The growth is expected to gain momentum, reaching 0.7% by March and a noteworthy 4.4% by December 31, 2024.
  • Chillicothe, OH: The Chillicothe MSA is poised for growth, starting at 0.4% on December 31, 2023, and progressing to 1% by March. The year is projected to conclude with a 4.2% increase in home prices.
  • Bellefontaine, OH: This region is forecasted to exhibit positive growth, beginning at 0.3% on December 31, 2023, escalating to 0.9% by March, and culminating in a 4.1% increase by December 31, 2024.
  • Ashtabula, OH: Despite starting with a slight decrease of -0.1% on December 31, 2023, Ashtabula is expected to rebound, reaching 0.4% by March and a commendable 4% by December 31, 2024.

These projections are subject to change based on market conditions. Consult with local experts for accurate and up-to-date information.

Other Factors That Can Impact the Housing Market in Ohio

When the housing market is booming, it is partly caused by job growth and decreases in unemployment. The housing market is inextricably linked to the economy. The health of the economy and job growth affects real estate buyers’ purchasing power. As of September 2022, the unemployment rate in Ohio is 3.8% (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Before the pandemic, in 2019, Ohio’s gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic production, totaled $698.5 billion, a 3.3% increase from the 2018 total GDP of $675.9 billion. Ohio’s 2019 GDP was the 7th largest in the U.S., ranked between Pennsylvania (6th) and New Jersey (8th). Ohio’s real GDP grew 5.5 percent at an annual rate in the 4th quarter of 2021.

Ohio’s gross state product (GSP) in 2022 reached $620.7b, with a growth of 1.0% over the 5 years to 2022. Businesses in Ohio employed a total of 5,743,338 people in 2022, with average annual employment growth over the past five years of -0.2%. The top three sectors by total employment are Manufacturing, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing, Finance, and Insurance, while the unemployment rate across the state in 2022 was 4.2%.

More people require housing as the population grows. This means that, in the long run, population growth drives increased demand for housing and, as a result, a strong real estate market. Population growth has a positive impact on the housing market. Ohio is constantly growing and according to the United States Census Bureau. The state of Ohio has a population of 11,802,444, having grown an annualized 0.2% over the five years to 2022, which ranks it 38th out of all 50 US states by growth rate.



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