Manhattan Real Estate Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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Manhattan and New York City are synonymous for all intents and purposes. More than 1.6 million people live in Manhattan.  Currently, the Manhattan real estate market appears to be favoring sellers. The surge in property transactions suggests heightened demand, potentially creating a competitive environment that sellers can leverage.

Current Manhattan Real Estate Market Trends

According to PropertyShark, in November, the Manhattan real estate market witnessed dynamic changes, shaping the landscape for both buyers and sellers. Let’s delve into the key data points that define the current trends in the heart of New York City.


Buy/sell, rent/lease residential &
commercials real estate properties.

1. Median Home Sale Price and Asset Volume

The median home sale price in Manhattan stood at $1M, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year decrease. Interestingly, the total number of assets sold surged by an impressive 92.1% compared to November of the previous year, totaling 1984 transactions. This surge indicates a robust market activity, potentially favoring sellers.

2. Median Price per Square Foot

Examining the price per square foot, the data reveals a -9.8% year-over-year change, with the median reaching $1,321. This metric provides insights into the cost efficiency of space, influencing buyer decisions in the competitive Manhattan real estate market.

3. Manhattan vs. New York City Median Home Sale Price

Comparing Manhattan to the broader New York City market, the median home sale price in the city as a whole was $675K in November. This contrast prompts a closer look at the unique dynamics within Manhattan’s neighborhoods.

4. Median House Sale Price by Property Type

The median house sale price in Manhattan experienced a substantial 39.1% year-over-year increase, reaching $7.9M. Condo and coop prices followed suit, with median condo prices rising by 12.9% to $1.7M, and median coop sale prices increasing by 10.5% to $789K.

Top 10 Most Expensive Neighborhoods in Manhattan

  • Hudson Yards: $5,503,750
  • TriBeCa: $4,550,000
  • NoHo: $3,425,500
  • Garment District: $3,047,500
  • Hudson Square: $2,750,000
  • SoHo: $2,695,000
  • NoMad: $2,375,000
  • Carnegie Hill: $1,925,000
  • Two Bridges: $1,897,358
  • Chinatown: $1,365,000

Are Home Prices Dropping in Manhattan?

While the overall median home sale price in Manhattan experienced a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, the substantial 39.1% increase in the median house sale price indicates a nuanced trend. Home prices vary based on property type and neighborhood, emphasizing the importance of a detailed analysis for prospective buyers.

There is no clear indication of a housing market crash based on the current data. The surge in transaction volume and varying price trends across property types suggest a resilient market. However, continuous monitoring is crucial to detect any emerging patterns that may impact market stability.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Manhattan?

The decision to buy a house in Manhattan depends on individual preferences and goals. With the median home sale price down year-over-year, buyers may find opportunities, especially in specific neighborhoods. However, the competitive nature of the market, as indicated by the high transaction volume, necessitates strategic planning.

Manhattan Real Estate Investment Overview

We have already discussed the Manhattan housing market trends. Purchasing an investment property in Manhattan real estate is a little different from shopping for your car or primary residence. Manhattan has been included among the cities for real estate investment over the past few years. While you still want to get the most for your money, if you are looking to make a profit, you don’t want to buy the most expensive property on the Manhattan real estate market and expect to make a good profit on rents.

Perhaps you are looking for a slightly different hold-over, an investment property in Manhattan that you might move into or sell at retirement in the future! Either way, knowing your profit potential and purpose is the first thing to consider. Some of the best neighborhoods in Manhattan are Upper East Side, Upper West Side, Midtown East, Woodside, Brooklyn, Astoria, SoHo, Harlem, Elmhurst, Tribeca, Williamsburg, Maspeth, The Heights, Queens, Long Island City, Greenpoint, and Sunnyside.

Upper West Side offers an abundance of public green space. It is home to Lincoln Center, which hosts performing arts institutions like the Metropolitan Opera and New York City Ballet. Further away from the city center, you’ll find charming Manhattan neighborhoods like Hamilton Heights and Washington Heights. Gramercy Park is one of the most beautiful areas of Manhattan.

It is located in a quiet corner and attracts fewer tourists than the nearby East Village and Soho. Battery Park is a favorite choice among families and it always ranks among the safest neighborhoods in New York City. With the newly designed Hub with 11 subway lines, transportation is very convenient from here.

Lenox Hill is a posh neighborhood on the Upper East Side. It runs from about 60th Street up to 77th Street and Fifth Avenue to Lexington Avenue. It forms the lower section of the Upper East Side, closest to Midtown. Some of the most expensive real estate in Manhattan is located in this neighborhood. The one thing about Lenox Hill that it is famous for is the hospital. Lenox Hospital is one of the best in NYC. Lenox Hill Hospital just joined forces with North Shore-LIJ Health System, which now provides a much larger hospital in NYC.

Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Manhattan real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.

The Diverse Manhattan Housing Market

The Manhattan real estate market shouldn’t be a top spot for investment because it is so expensive or famous. Its biggest draw is the sheer size of the Manhattan housing market. You can own a variety of condos, apartment buildings, and single-family homes in your Manhattan real estate investment portfolio scattered across a wide area and still be part of the same housing market. You only have to know one set of housing regulations affecting tenant screenings and evictions.

Demographic diversity is not relevant to this discussion. The sheer variety of Manhattan real estate investment properties is. The incredibly expensive Manhattan real estate market has resulted in novel, high-density projects that offer very high rates of return. For example, the rent-a-desk concept behind WeWork has led to a rent bunk of residential communities popping up, often just down the street from the rent desk places.

You could invest in these startups or renovate commercial space to create these high-density living arrangements. New York City has also revised its rules to allow for much smaller single-resident occupancy apartments. Just ensure you get the necessary permits before subdividing an existing unit because fines can be steep.

There are a variety of rules that lead to tenants staying once they find a decent place in the Manhattan housing market. We periodically hear the stories of someone who moved into an apartment, got rent control, and stayed for sixty years. In the right circumstances, this is a boon for a Manhattan real estate investment property owner.

You don’t have to worry about vacancies. Then there’s no need to advertise the property or worry about the rules regarding such advertisements. A good tenant will pay the rent month after month. It is guaranteed cash flow, and it is profitable as long as you can keep property maintenance costs and taxes below that level.

The Long-Term Real Estate Forecast

New York City has long been the biggest city in the United States in almost every way. It has the largest school district in the country. It has also garnered attention for having the most people moving out in record numbers. We have to keep this in perspective since thousands moving out every week from NYC have far less of an impact than if it were a small metro area like San Antonio.

In the short term, this creates a buying opportunity in the Manhattan real estate market. After all, prices are down.  The Manhattan housing market, though, remains one of the most expensive in the world. The local leadership driving away jobs and attacking schools is contributing to this. Fortunately, it means Manhattan real estate investment properties will rebound as soon as there is a change in leadership.

The Manhattan real estate market is famous for an average one-bedroom apartment surpassing 3000 dollars a month in rent. However, you don’t have to have millions of dollars of cash on hand to consider Manhattan real estate investment. There are cheaper properties in the boroughs, and they’ll command 1500 dollars a month in rent for a one-bedroom and much more for a two-bedroom or three-bedroom apartment. And rents in the Manhattan housing market are going up faster than the rate of inflation.

The Higher Quality of Life in New York City

People may come to New York City to try to make it big on Broadway, broadcasting, or publishing. However, they only stay if it is worth their while, whether they work on Wall Street or earn a living some other way. Poor quality of life will drive people away, whether or not they have children but especially after they have children. And it is quality of life that makes the Manhattan real estate market a better play than San Francisco.

New York City has a homeless problem, but it doesn’t have poop so bad they have an app for that or needles littering the place. That will keep New York City’s housing market demand strong for the long term. Stronger public transit and the number of activities available at any given time makes the city more attractive to Millennials, too.

The demographic churn you see in the NYC area is young adults moving to Manhattan for work, moving to the boroughs to afford a house or larger apartment when they have children, then moving again when they are childless middle-aged adults. However, most are not fleeing the metro area after leaving the tech sector as is being seen in San Francisco.

The Relative Deal on Property Taxes

New York has one of the heaviest overall tax burdens in the United States. However, that burden varies based on the type of income you receive and the property you own. For example, co-ops are not faced with comparable property tax bills to apartment buildings. Buy a building and renovate it to create affordable, high-density housing, and you’ll be eligible for significant property tax breaks.

At the other end of the market, the luxury condo buildings going in result in relatively low tax bills for the owners on the basis of the property’s selling price, though this could still yield a tax bill far higher than what the average person could pay. Recent changes to the property tax laws that are increasing the property tax bill most will face are contributing to the flood of multi-million dollar mansions and apartment buildings by those who don’t want to pay the bill.

Conclusion

Manhattan offers incredibly dense housing, incentives for more of the same, and a large, loyal renting population. If you can afford to invest here, it can be worth the effort. Therefore, finding a good Manhattan real estate investment opportunity would be a key to your success. Buying or selling real estate, for a majority of investors, is one of the most important decisions they will make. Choosing a real estate professional/counselor continues to be a vital part of this process.

They are well-informed about critical factors that affect your specific market areas, such as changes in market conditions, market forecasts, consumer attitudes, best locations, timing, and interest rates. NORADA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS strives to set the standard for our industry and inspire others by raising the bar on providing exceptional real estate investment opportunities in the U.S. growth markets. We can help you succeed by minimizing risk and maximizing profitability.

Let us know which real estate markets you consider best for real estate investing! If you need expert investment advice, you may fill up the form given here. One of our investment specialists will contact you to discuss all facets of searching for, buying, and owning a turnkey investment property.


References

  • https://www.zillow.com/Manhattan-ny/home-values
  • https://www.propertyshark.com/mason/market-trends/residential/nyc/manhattan
  • https://www.redfin.com/city/35948/NY/Manhattan/housing-market
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Manhattan_NY/overview
  • https://www.streetadvisor.com/search/neighborhoods-in-manhattan-new-york-city-new-york
  • https://www.cubesmart.com/blog/city-guides/nyc/5-of-the-best-neighborhoods-to-live-in-manhattan 
  • https://www.gothamgazette.com/state/8712-an-old-unfair-system-new-york-city-s-property-tax-conundrum-part-i
  • https://www.citylab.com/equity/2015/05/why-billionaires-dont-pay-property-taxes-in-new-york/389886
  • https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-more-broad-based-real-estate-tax-hits-developers-11554303511

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