Here’s where the U.S. housing market is most overvalued – MarketWatch

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The housing market is overvalued in 88% of U.S. metropolitan areas, according to a new report by Fitch Ratings.

The ratings agency said Wednesday that housing was overvalued by 9.4%, nationally, in the second quarter of 2023. The agency said it expects prices to remain elevated, with prices having climbed further in the third quarter.

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The increase in home prices has accelerated over the last few years. Despite a rapid rise in mortgage rates over the last year and a half — before easing in recent weeks — home prices have also continued to rise, due to low inventory and strong demand.

See: Mortgage rates will fall to 6% by the end of 2024, but home-buying sentiment will remain subdued, report says

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The median price of a home in the U.S. rose in November for the fifth month in a row to $387,600, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday.

And with the typical 30-year mortgage rates having fallen below 7%, home prices will likely stay elevated, because inventory is likely to remain low even as demand continues to rise.

The agency also said that in the 88% of the country’s metropolitan statistical areas where homes were overvalued, more than half saw an average overvaluation of 10% or more. “Overvaluation still dominated nationwide,” the report stated.

The top three overvalued metropolitan areas were Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.; El Paso, Texas; and Camden, N.J., according to the report.

But Fitch also said it expects nominal home-price increases to slow, only increasing 0% to 3% in 2024 and 2% to 4% in 2025.

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