Fresno Housing Market Trends and Forecast for 2024 – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The housing market in Fresno and the Central Valley region of California has been a topic of interest for buyers, sellers, and real estate agents. Understanding the latest trends and changes in the market can provide valuable insights for those involved in the real estate industry. The valley encompasses all or parts of 19 California counties including Fresno.

Current Fresno Housing Market Trends

Fresno is the fifth-most populous city in California and the county seat of Fresno County. The city is located in the San Joaquin Valley, about 200 miles southeast of San Francisco. Fresno is known for its agriculture, hot weather, and diverse population.

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The Fresno housing market leans towards a seller’s market, characterized by high demand and limited inventory. Homes receive multiple offers, and the swift selling time underscores the competitive nature of the market.

The median sale price stands at 12% lower than the national average. Despite this affordability factor, the market is highly competitive. According to Redfin, on average, homes in Fresno receive 2 offers and sell within a remarkably swift 17 days.

Recent Trends and Median Sale Price Fluctuations

Last month, the median sale price of a home in Fresno was $370K, indicating a modest 2.6% decrease since the previous year. Additionally, the median sale price per square foot has seen a 4.4% increase over the same period, highlighting the dynamic nature of the Fresno housing market.

Market Dynamics in November 2023

In November 2023, Fresno home prices experienced a 2.6% decline compared to the previous year, settling at a median price of $370K. Homes in Fresno also demonstrated a quicker selling pace, with an average of 17 days on the market, down from 27 days in the corresponding period last year. The number of homes sold in November decreased to 249, a drop from 316 in the same month the previous year.

Competitive Bidding and Sales Dynamics

Adding to the competitiveness, many homes in Fresno attract multiple offers, some even with waived contingencies. On average, homes sell for around the list price and go pending in approximately 16 days. Hot homes, characterized by selling about 2% above the list price, go pending in a rapid 7 days.

Key Metrics Reflecting Market Trends

  • Sale-to-List Price: 99.7% (+1.9 pt year-over-year)
  • Homes Sold Above List Price: 41.4% (+15.1 pt year-over-year)

Homebuyer Preferences and Regional Mobility

Between October ’23 and December ’23, 36% of Fresno homebuyers expressed a desire to move out of Fresno, while 64% looked to stay within the metropolitan area. Notably, 0.43% of homebuyers from across the nation searched to move into Fresno from outside metros.

Breaking down the origin of these potential newcomers, San Francisco homebuyers exhibited the highest interest in moving into Fresno, followed by Los Angeles and Visalia.

Are Home Prices Dropping in Fresno?

While recent data shows a 2.6% decrease in median home prices, it’s essential to consider the broader context of a dynamic market where other factors, such as increased median price per square foot, may influence overall pricing trends.

The competitive nature of the Fresno housing market suggests that now may be a challenging time for buyers. However, individual circumstances and long-term goals should be considered, and consulting with a real estate professional is recommended for personalized advice.

Fresno Rent Prices

As of January 2024, the median rent for all bedroom counts and property types in Fresno, CA is $1,650. This is -15% lower than the national average. Rent prices for all bedroom counts and property types in Fresno, CA have decreased by 14% in the last month and have remained the same in the last year.

For Home Buyers in Fresno

If you are looking to buy a home in Fresno, now is a good time to do it. Home prices are still relatively affordable, and there are plenty of homes to choose from. However, it is important to act quickly, as the market is expected to continue to soften in the coming months.

Here are some additional things to keep in mind when considering the Fresno housing market:

  • The cost of living in Fresno is slightly below the national average.
  • The weather in Fresno is hot and dry in the summer, but mild in the winter.
  • Fresno is a major agricultural center, so there is a lot of farm work available.
  • The school district in Fresno is ranked below average.

Fresno Housing Market Forecast for 2024

Zillow has been a reliable source for real estate insights, providing valuable data on the Fresno housing market. Based on the current data, there are no indications of an impending housing market crash in Fresno. The steady increase in home values and the competitive nature of the market suggest a resilient and robust real estate environment.

As of December 31, 2023, the average home value in Fresno stands at $364,987, reflecting a 1.6% increase over the past year. Homes in Fresno typically go pending in an impressive 16 days.

Key Metrics and Statistics

  • For Sale Inventory (December 31, 2023): 806 homes
  • New Listings (December 31, 2023): 280
  • Median Sale to List Ratio (November 30, 2023): 1.000
  • Median Sale Price (November 30, 2023): $355,760
  • Median List Price (December 31, 2023): $396,000
  • Percent of Sales Over List Price (November 30, 2023): 42.9%
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price (November 30, 2023): 37.8%
Fresno Housing Market Forecast for 2024
Source: Zillow

Fresno Real Estate Investment Overview

Is it worth buying a house in Fresno, CA? Investing in real estate is touted as a great way to become wealthy. Many real estate investors have asked themselves if buying a property in Fresno is a good investment? Fresno is the epitome of “the Valley”, the city that Californians like to mock as a backwater drawing a steady stream of nearly local rural girls to the theoretically more cultured, exciting, and fun cities like Los Angeles. Fresno continues to be ignored in favor of hot coastal markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles.

It is located in the San Joaquin Valley, the agricultural heart of the state. It sits at the southern end of the valley. It is sometimes called the heart of the Inland Empire. You need to drill deeper into local trends if you want to know what the market holds for the year ahead. We have already discussed the Fresno housing market forecast for answers on why to put resources into this market. Although this article alone is not a comprehensive source to make a final investment decision for Fresno we have collected ten evidence-based positive things for those who are keen to invest in Fresno real estate

Investing in Fresno real estate will fetch you good returns in the long term as the home prices in Fresno have been trending up year over year. Let’s take a look at the number of positive things going on in the Fresno real estate market which can help investors who are keen to buy an investment property in this city.

Fresno Market is Big Enough to Consider

The Fresno housing market is small by Californian standards, but it is a large real estate market in and of itself. Fresno is home to over half a million people, making it the fifth-largest city in the state and coming as the thirty-fourth-largest city in the United States. However, the Fresno real estate market is larger than this. When you take the suburbs into account, the Fresno real estate market contains almost a million people.

While you may hear about all the people fleeing California for states like Colorado and Idaho for a lower cost of living, it is cities like Fresno that see growth by people who need to move for the same reasons but don’t want to leave the state. This is why Fresno has grown five percent since 2010. The Fresno suburb of Clovis is one of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. Clovis grew roughly ten percent since 2010. This population growth will continue to fuel property appreciation in the Fresno real estate market.

Fresno Real Estate is Affordable for Investors

The Fresno housing market offers some affordability for real estate investors, especially when compared to more expensive markets in California. The average home value of $363,533, as of June 30, 2023, is notably lower than many other cities in the state, making Fresno a potentially attractive option for investors looking to enter the California real estate market.

The relatively lower average home value means that investors might need less initial capital to enter the market compared to investing in higher-priced regions. Fresno’s affordability could make it an attractive destination for renters, potentially providing opportunities for investors interested in rental properties. Strong demand for rental properties can create a steady income stream for investors.

Fresno Has a Relatively Diverse Economy

Fresno may be in the agricultural heartland of the state, but there is more to the local economy than farming and food processing. The city is the regional services hub, resulting in many educational and medical jobs. The IRS has a regional office located here, as well. There are also several colleges in the area, but that will be addressed later in the article. While Fresno made the news of the real estate crash around 2008, the diverse and improving job market contributed to the rebounding of the Fresno housing market.

And if they ever finish that bullet train to connect Fresno to San Francisco, expect the Fresno housing market to boom as people move somewhere they can buy a house for less than 300K while earning 100K or more in Big Tech. The multiple military bases in the area provide high-tech jobs instead.

The Sizable Student Market That Rents

California State University has a campus here. Commonly called Fresno State, it is home to more than twenty thousand students. This creates a disproportionately large student population in the Fresno housing market. However, that’s not the only college in the area. Fresno Pacific University is a private four-year school, and it has more than four thousand students. Reedly College in Reedly, California is in the suburbs of Fresno. All of this gives those considering Fresno real estate investment the opportunity to have a diverse property portfolio without tying their fates to the state of one massive school.

There are several reasons why there is an unusually large pool of renters competing to stay in your Fresno real estate investment property. The seasonal nature of the agricultural industry and the slower local economy have resulted in a 7 percent unemployment rate, several points higher than the state and national average. People who have cycled in and out of the workforce aren’t going to be able to buy a home. Those working in low-paying industries can’t afford the average home, either.

The Relative Landlord-Friendliness

California is definitely tenant-friendly, but cities can be more or less in favor of property owners. We can say that the Fresno real estate market is more friendly to landlords than somewhere like San Francisco. For example, your Fresno real estate investment property isn’t subject to rent control unless you’re running a trailer park. Nor does Fresno follow in San Fran’s habit of nearly banning new construction. It is also much easier to evict someone in Fresno who doesn’t follow the terms of the lease. Furthermore, Fresno allows you to remove tenants through no fault of their own.

The Quality of Life

Quality of life generally isn’t enough to make someone pick up and move to a new city. However, plenty of people are fleeing cities like San Francisco and L.A. because of the poor quality of life there. Why would you want to pay 3000 to 4000 a month to live in a tiny room and try to avoid poop and needles on the street just to say you work for Big Tech or, hey, aren’t I cool for living in San Francisco? Fresno’s violent crime rate is much lower than L.A.’s, too. Combine a lower cost of living with reasonable wages, cleaner air, and literally clean streets, and the slightly higher odds of having your car broken into are considered worth it.

Fresno is sometimes seen as the boring middle child in a famous family. It is overshadowed by Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose. Yet it is free of their many problems, too, while remaining solid and stable. That’s why you can’t afford to ignore the Fresno area.

Buying an investment property is different from buying an owner-occupied home. Whether you are a beginner or a seasoned pro you probably realize the most important factor that will determine your success as a Real Estate Investor in Fresno, CA is your ability to find great real estate investments in that area.



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