Fort Worth Housing Market Forecast 2024: Will it Crash? – Norada Real Estate Investments

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The Fort Worth housing market is shifting into a buyer’s market. This means that the supply of homes for sale is greater than the demand for homes. This is a change from the past few years when the Fort Worth housing market was extremely competitive and seller-friendly.

There are a few factors contributing to the shift to a buyer’s market in Fort Worth. First, mortgage rates have increased significantly in 2023, making it more expensive to buy a home. This has reduced the demand for homes, especially among first-time homebuyers.


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Second, the supply of homes for sale has increased in Fort Worth. This is due in part to the fact that some sellers who were waiting to sell their homes during the pandemic are now putting them on the market. Additionally, some investors who are facing rising interest rates and other economic challenges are selling their Fort Worth properties.

How is the housing market doing currently?

In November 2023, the Fort Worth housing market experienced notable shifts, providing both challenges and opportunities for homebuyers and sellers. Let’s delve into the key statistics and insights released by the Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS®.

Median Home Price and Year-Over-Year Changes

The median home price in Fort Worth during November 2023 stood at $320,000. This figure reflects a 3.9 percent decrease compared to November 2022, marking the lowest point since January. The dip in prices raises questions about the factors influencing this decline.

Inventory Trends – More Choices for Buyers

Conversely, inventory levels in November 2023 reached 2.7 months, representing the highest point throughout the year. The steady climb in inventory offers potential homebuyers an increased pool of options, and notably, at lower prices. With an average of 45 days on the market, there’s also room for negotiation, a favorable condition for those entering the market in the winter season.

Insights from Bart Calahan

Bart Calahan, the 2023 President of the Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS®, emphasizes the current market conditions, urging individuals to consider making their home purchase now. According to Calahan, if the predictions for the 2024 market hold true, lowering interest rates could lead to increased competition and a rise in multiple offers. The market’s volatility underscores the importance of initiating the homebuying process promptly with the assistance of a qualified REALTOR®.

National Perspective – Pent-Up Demand in DFW-Arlington Market

A recent report from the National Association of REALTORS® identifies the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington market as one of the 10 markets with the most pent-up demand. This recognition is based on an evaluation of various factors, including the pool of potential homebuyers and the likelihood of home price appreciation.

Mortgage Rates and Their Impact

The looming question revolves around the trajectory of mortgage rates. After surpassing the 7.5 percent threshold in October, rates have since decreased, falling below 7 percent in November. The fluctuations in rates impact housing affordability and, consequently, the demand for homes. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, notes that while the lower rates provide relief, a more significant drop is necessary to consistently reinvigorate demand.

Sales Performance in November 2023

As buyers and sellers closely monitored mortgage rates, the closed sales in November 2023 reflected a 13.5 percent year-over-year decrease in Fort Worth. Tarrant County experienced a 7.7 percent drop, Johnson County was down 13.7 percent, and Parker County recorded a substantial 21.7 percent decline.

Fort Worth Housing Statistics At-A-Glance

  • Homes Sold: 637 in November 2023 (13.5 percent less than November 2022)
  • Median Price: $320,000 in November 2023 (3.9 percent less than November 2022)
  • Monthly Housing Inventory: 2.7 months in November 2023 (0.4 months more than November 2022)
  • Days on the Market: 45 in November 2023 (1 day more than November 2022)
  • Days to Close: 32 in November 2023

Are Home Prices Dropping in Fort Worth?

Yes, home prices in Fort Worth are dropping. The median home price of $320,000 in November 2023 reflects a 3.9 percent decrease compared to the same month in 2022, reaching the lowest point since January. The data indicates a decline in closed sales, but it’s essential to interpret this within the broader context. While there is a decrease in demand, other factors such as inventory levels and mortgage rates contribute to the market’s dynamics. A market crash is not inevitable, but continued monitoring is advised.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Fort Worth?

Considering the current market conditions, now could be a good time to buy a house. Bart Calahan’s advice to initiate the buying process aligns with the opportunities presented by lower prices and increased inventory. However, the unpredictability of interest rates emphasizes the importance of timely decision-making.

Fort Worth Housing Market Forecast 2023 & 2024

Average Home Value: According to Zillow, the average home value in Fort Worth currently stands at $299,131, reflecting a 3.9% decrease over the past year. This decline, measured through November 30, 2023, signals a shift in the market that could impact both buyers and sellers.

Days to Pending: Homes in Fort Worth are moving swiftly, with an average of 23 days from listing to pending, emphasizing the city’s dynamic real estate environment.

Inventory Metrics (November 30, 2023):

  • For Sale Inventory: 2,522
  • New Listings: 780

Sale Price Trends (October 31, 2023):

  • Median Sale Price: $321,000
  • Median List Price: $339,217
  • Median Sale to List Ratio: 0.994

Market Dynamics (October 31, 2023):

  • Percent of Sales Over List Price: 23.6%
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price: 52.8%

Fort Worth MSA Housing Market Forecast

The Fort Worth housing market is an integral part of the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area, which is one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States. The DFW metroplex includes cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, and several others, making it a thriving hub for real estate activity.

While the provided data focuses on Fort Worth specifically, it’s essential to recognize that the housing market in this region is interconnected. As per Zillow’s forecast for the Dallas, TX metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which includes Fort Worth, there are projected changes in home values.

According to the forecast provided by Zillow, the DFW MSA housing market is anticipated to experience modest adjustments. As of November 30, 2023, the forecast indicates a slight decrease in home values with a -0.2% change by the end of 2023. Looking ahead to February 29, 2024, and November 30, 2024, the projections suggest a further -0.8% adjustment. This forecast indicates a nuanced market where adjustments are expected but not indicative of a drastic downturn.

Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

The current metrics, including a decrease in average home value and an increase in inventory, suggest that the Fort Worth housing market is leaning towards being a more favorable environment for buyers. The abundance of choices and a slight drop in prices provide potential buyers with advantageous conditions.

Fort Worth Housing Market Forecast 2023 & 2024
Source: Zillow

Should You Invest in the Fort Worth Real Estate Market?

Population Growth and Trends

  • Fort Worth has been experiencing significant population growth in recent years, making it an attractive destination for real estate investors. The city’s population growth can be attributed to factors such as job opportunities, affordability, and a thriving economy.
  • With its strategic location in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, Fort Worth benefits from spillover growth from the larger metropolitan area, contributing to its sustained population increase.

Economy and Jobs

  • Fort Worth boasts a diverse and robust economy with key sectors including aerospace and aviation, healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics. The presence of major corporations, including Lockheed Martin and American Airlines, provides a stable job market.
  • The city’s job market has been expanding, creating a strong demand for housing. This employment growth is a positive indicator for real estate investors, as a strong job market is often correlated with a healthy housing market.

Livability and Other Factors

  • Fort Worth offers a high quality of life, with a lower cost of living compared to many other major U.S. cities. The city is known for its cultural amenities, excellent schools, and family-friendly communities, making it an appealing place for residents.
  • Fort Worth’s affordability and diverse housing options cater to a broad range of potential tenants, which is advantageous for real estate investors seeking a diverse rental market.

Rental Property Market Size and Growth

  • The rental property market in Fort Worth is substantial and continues to grow. The city’s expanding population and job market have created a consistent demand for rental properties.
  • Rental properties in Fort Worth offer investors the opportunity to generate passive income and the potential for long-term appreciation of property values.

Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing

  • Fort Worth’s real estate market is known for its stability and resilience. Even during economic downturns, the city’s housing market has shown relative strength.
  • The city’s regulatory environment is favorable for real estate investors, with landlord-friendly laws that provide protection for property owners.
  • Fort Worth’s real estate market offers a variety of property types, from single-family homes to multifamily units and commercial properties. This diversity allows investors to tailor their portfolios to their preferences and investment goals.
  • Fort Worth is strategically located near major transportation hubs, including DFW International Airport. This connectivity enhances the city’s desirability as a place to live and work, further benefiting real estate investors.

Thus, investing in the Fort Worth real estate market presents a compelling opportunity for investors. The city’s population growth, strong economy, livability, and rental market size all contribute to its attractiveness. With a diverse range of property types and a favorable regulatory environment, Fort Worth is a destination worth considering for real estate investors seeking long-term growth and stability in their portfolios.


Sources:

  • https://www.zillow.com/fortworth-tx/home-values
  • https://www.gfwar.org/housing-report
  • https://www.redfin.com/city/30827/TX/Fort-Worth/housing-market
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Fort-Worth_TX/overview

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