Bay Area Housing Market Forecast: Will it Crash in 2024? – Norada Real Estate Investments

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Bay Area Housing Market

The Bay Area housing market has been cooling off since the spring of last year, with prices trending downwards. However, inventory remains tight, which is keeping prices elevated and benefits sellers.  There are several factors contributing to the cooling Bay Area housing market.

First, rising interest rates are making it more expensive to borrow money to buy a home. Second, the stock market has been volatile in recent months, which has eroded some people’s wealth and made them less likely to buy a home. Third, the Bay Area has experienced a population decline in recent years, which is reducing demand for housing.


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Despite the cooling market, home prices in the Bay Area remain very high. The median home price in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA is still over $1 million, and homes in some desirable neighborhoods are selling for much more.

Here are some key trends in the Bay Area housing market as of December 2023:

  • Home prices: Home prices are trending downwards, but they remain very high. The median home price in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward MSA is over $1 million.
  • Inventory: Inventory remains tight, which is keeping prices elevated.
  • Buyer demand: Buyer demand has weakened in recent months, but it is still relatively strong.
  • Interest rates: Interest rates are rising, which is making it more expensive to borrow money to buy a home.

Current Bay Area Housing Market Trends 2023 

Bay Area Housing Market ReportBay Area Housing Market Report
Source: CAR

How is the Bay Area housing market doing currently?

According to the California Association of Realtors, in November 2023, closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 223,940. This figure represents the projected total number of homes sold during the entire year if the November sales pace is maintained, with adjustments made for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

Median Sold Prices and Sales Changes in the Bay Area

Zooming in on the specifics of the San Francisco Bay Area, the median sold price for existing single-family homes in November 2023 was $1,250,000. This figure represented a slight month-to-month (MTM) decrease of 1.5%. However, when compared to the same month in the previous year, there was a noteworthy year-over-year (YTY) increase of 4.4%.

The price dynamics are indicative of a resilient market, demonstrating stability and growth over the year. Despite the MTM dip, the YTY increase suggests a positive trajectory in property values, offering potential benefits for homeowners in the long term.

However, the sales data tells a different story. November 2023 witnessed a substantial MTM decrease of 15.4% in the number of closed escrow sales. This decline, when viewed in the context of year-over-year figures, amounted to a 6.2% decrease. The dip in sales activity may be attributed to various factors, including seasonality, economic conditions, or local market dynamics.

The MTM price decrease may be a result of seasonal adjustments or short-term market fluctuations. It’s essential to consider the broader economic context and external influences that impact the real estate market. The YTY price increase, on the other hand, highlights the overall positive trajectory, emphasizing the resilience of property values in the San Francisco Bay Area.

However, the decline in sales, both MTM and YTY, raises questions about market dynamics. A 15.4% MTM decrease and a 6.2% YTY decrease in closed escrow sales indicate a potential shift in buyer behavior or market conditions.

  • San Francisco: The median sold price for existing single-family homes in November 2023 was $1,250,000, showing a month-to-month (MTM) decrease of 1.5%. However, the year-over-year (YTY) change indicated a 4.4% increase. Sales, on the other hand, experienced a significant MTM decrease of 15.4% and a YTY decrease of 6.2%.
  • Alameda: With a median sold price of $1,230,000, Alameda County saw a slight MTM decrease of 0.8%. The YTY change, however, displayed a notable 7.0% increase. Sales, both MTM and YTY, experienced declines of 8.6% and 8.9%, respectively.
  • Contra Costa: The county had a median sold price of $860,000, reflecting a 4.2% MTM increase. YTY, prices remained steady with no change, but sales faced a MTM decrease of 20.4% and a YTY decrease of 15.7%.
  • Marin: With a median sold price of $1,649,500, Marin County saw a 3.7% MTM decrease. Sales, however, experienced significant drops with a 28.9% MTM decrease and a 19.4% YTY decrease.
  • Napa: The median sold price in Napa County was $825,000, showing a substantial MTM decrease of 19.7%. YTY, prices also decreased by 22.7%. Sales, both MTM and YTY, faced significant declines of 30.5% and 17.4%, respectively.
  • San Mateo: San Mateo County witnessed a notable MTM decrease in median sold prices by 14.0%, settling at $1,805,000. However, on a YTY basis, prices increased by 1.3%. Sales, both MTM and YTY, decreased by 5.0% and 10.2%, respectively.
  • Santa Clara: The median sold price in Santa Clara County was $1,717,500, showing a 4.8% MTM decrease. YTY, prices increased by 7.3%. Sales, however, faced a considerable MTM decrease of 16.3% and a YTY increase of 3.2%.
  • Solano: With a median sold price of $570,000, Solano County experienced an 8.1% MTM decrease. YTY, prices showed a marginal 0.3% decrease. Sales, both MTM and YTY, faced declines of 12.1% and 4.0%, respectively.
  • Sonoma: Sonoma County had a median sold price of $793,620, reflecting a 7.4% MTM decrease. YTY, prices also decreased by 4.8%. Sales, both MTM and YTY, experienced significant declines of 26.2% and 17.4%, respectively.

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

Bay Area consistently ranks among the world’s most expensive real estate markets, and it is one of the most densely populated cities in the U.S. The Bay Area housing market consists of all nine counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma) and 101 municipalities. The region is home to three major cities: San Francisco, Oakland, and, the largest, San Jose. Here are Bay real estate market predictions for 2023 and 2024.

According to Zillow, the average home value in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area is currently $1,108,117, reflecting a 1.2% decrease over the past year. Homes in this region typically go pending in a rapid 16 days, highlighting the competitive nature of the local real estate market. The following metrics provide a comprehensive view of the current and projected market conditions.

One-Year Market Forecast

Zillow’s forecast predicts a -4.8% change in the housing market over the next year, indicating a potential decline in overall home values. This projection serves as a crucial indicator for both buyers and sellers, shaping expectations and influencing strategic decisions in the real estate market.

Inventory and Listings

  • For Sale Inventory (November 30, 2023): The current inventory stands at 6,739 homes for sale, providing options for prospective buyers exploring the market.
  • New Listings (November 30, 2023): In the same period, there were 2,601 new listings, indicating ongoing activity in the housing market with fresh properties entering the market.

Sale Metrics

  • Median Sale to List Ratio (October 31, 2023): The median sale to list ratio is 1.017, emphasizing a balance between listing prices and actual sale prices in the recent market activity.
  • Median Sale Price (October 31, 2023): The median sale price is $1,090,000, providing a benchmark for the cost of homes in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area.
  • Median List Price (November 30, 2023): The median list price is $1,018,833, offering insight into the pricing expectations set by sellers in the current market conditions.

Sales Trends

  • Percent of Sales Over List Price (October 31, 2023): A notable 61.0% of sales were over the list price, underscoring the competitive nature of the market and potential bidding wars.
  • Percent of Sales Under List Price (October 31, 2023): Approximately 30.3% of sales were under the list price, indicating a diversity in pricing strategies among sellers and negotiation opportunities for buyers.

Key Questions Answered

Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Housing Market?

The current market conditions, with a significant percentage of sales over list price and a relatively low inventory, suggest a seller’s market. Buyers may face increased competition, influencing their approach to property acquisition.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

Yes, the data indicates a 1.2% decrease in home values over the past year, and the -4.8% one-year market forecast by Zillow suggests a potential continuation of this downward trend.

Will This Housing Market Crash?

While the market is experiencing a decline in home values, the term “crash” implies a sudden and severe downturn. The current data doesn’t necessarily point to a crash but rather a market adjustment. Continued monitoring of trends and economic factors is crucial for a more accurate assessment of long-term stability.

Note: All data is accurate as of the specified dates and is subject to change based on market dynamics.

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024Bay Area Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024
Source: Zillow

Is it a Good Time to Buy a House in the Bay Area?

The question of whether 2023 is a good time to buy a house in the Bay Area is multifaceted and depends on various factors, including personal circumstances, financial situation, and long-term objectives. Here are some considerations to aid in this decision:

  • Market Conditions: While the market has seen a slight decline in home values over the past year, the forecast suggests a potential uptick. If the forecast aligns with your investment horizon, it might be a favorable time.
  • Competitive Nature: The high percentage of sales over the list price indicates a competitive market. Buyers should be prepared for potential bidding wars and act swiftly.
  • Interest Rates: Consider prevailing interest rates, as they influence your borrowing costs. If rates are relatively low, it could be advantageous for buyers.
  • Long-Term Goals: Evaluate if buying aligns with your long-term goals. If you plan to settle in the Bay Area for a considerable period, purchasing a home can be a prudent investment.

Ultimately, the decision to buy a house in the Bay Area in 2023 should be based on a comprehensive assessment of your unique circumstances and careful consideration of the market conditions and trends outlined by Zillow.

SF Bay Area Real Estate Investment Outlook

Investing in the San Francisco Bay Area’s real estate market can be an attractive prospect, but it’s essential to have a comprehensive understanding of the current market conditions, trends, and factors that can influence your investment decisions. In this in-depth overview, we’ll explore the key considerations for investors looking to make informed decisions in the SF Bay Area real estate market.

  • Steady Demand: The SF Bay Area continues to be an attractive destination for homebuyers, driven by factors like employment opportunities in the tech industry and the region’s natural beauty. This steady demand is a crucial factor for real estate investors to consider.
  • Location Matters: The Bay Area is known for its diverse neighborhoods and micro-markets. Research and choose your location carefully, as each area may have different growth potential and rental yields.
  • Rental Market: Assess the rental market’s performance in your chosen area. High demand for rentals can be advantageous for investors looking for income properties.
  • Property Type: Decide whether you want to invest in single-family homes, multi-family units, or other property types. Each has its pros and cons, so consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.
  • Market Forecast: Consult with real estate experts and economists for market forecasts and insights. These professionals can provide valuable information to help you make informed investment decisions.

Why are Houses So Expensive in San Francisco?

The high cost of housing in San Francisco can be attributed to several factors:

  • Strong Economy: The Bay Area is a global tech hub, home to Silicon Valley, and numerous tech giants. The region’s strong economy attracts high-income professionals, leading to increased demand for housing, and driving up prices.
  • Limited Supply: Geographical constraints and strict zoning regulations limit new construction in San Francisco. The supply of housing struggles to keep up with the growing demand, resulting in scarcity and rising costs.
  • High Land Costs: The cost of land in San Francisco is exceptionally high, which makes it expensive for developers to acquire land for new housing projects. This cost is often passed on to homebuyers and renters.
  • Foreign Investment: San Francisco’s reputation as a global city attracts international investors, further driving up property values.
  • Desirability: The city’s quality of life, cultural attractions, and natural beauty make it a highly desirable place to live, leading to a willingness to pay a premium for housing.
  • Limited Space for Growth: San Francisco is surrounded by water on three sides, leaving limited room for urban expansion. This geographical constraint intensifies competition for available properties.

Is Real Estate Investment a Good Option in this Region?

Investing in the Bay Area’s real estate market can be both lucrative and challenging. Here are some considerations:

  • Lucrative Returns: Despite high prices, rental rates in San Francisco are also substantial, making it possible to generate good rental income.
  • Appreciation Potential: The Bay Area’s strong economy suggests that property values are likely to appreciate over time.
  • Diversification: San Francisco is known for its tech industry, and investing in real estate diversifies your investment portfolio, which may be tech-heavy.
  • Challenges: High property prices mean a substantial initial investment. Additionally, property management and regulations can be complex.
  • Risk Mitigation: Careful property selection, understanding market dynamics, and working with local experts can help mitigate risks.

Investor Preferences in the Bay Area

Investors in the Bay Area have various options to consider:

  • Residential Properties: Single-family homes and condos are attractive for long-term rental income.
  • Multi-Family Units: Apartments or multi-unit buildings can offer multiple rental income streams.
  • Commercial Real Estate: Office and retail properties may provide stable rental income, particularly in business districts.
  • Short-Term Rentals: With tourism being a significant part of the Bay Area’s economy, short-term rentals through platforms like Airbnb can be profitable.
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): For those seeking to invest without direct property ownership, REITs focused on the Bay Area offer an alternative.

Economy and Growth

The San Francisco Bay Area boasts a robust and diverse economy, primarily driven by the technology sector, often referred to as Silicon Valley. This economic powerhouse has led to sustained growth, high incomes, and a robust job market, making it a hotspot for professionals and businesses. As a result, the region consistently attracts individuals seeking employment opportunities, which, in turn, fuels the demand for housing.

Housing Supply Shortage vs. Demand

The Bay Area faces a persistent challenge with housing supply shortages. Geographical constraints, coupled with stringent zoning regulations, limit the construction of new housing units. This limitation in supply collides with the consistently high demand for housing, primarily from tech professionals and other high-income earners. The resultant scarcity drives up property prices, making homeownership and rentals expensive propositions in the region.

Geography & Zoning Restrictions

Geography plays a significant role in the Bay Area’s real estate market dynamics. Surrounded by water on three sides, the region has limited space for urban expansion. As a result, land is at a premium, and developers often face challenges in acquiring suitable land for housing projects. Zoning regulations, aimed at preserving the unique character of different neighborhoods, can further limit the potential for new construction. These factors collectively contribute to the scarcity of housing and rising property values.

Luxury Real Estate Market

The Bay Area hosts a thriving luxury real estate market, catering to high-net-worth individuals and investors. Luxury properties in prestigious neighborhoods like Atherton, Hillsborough, and Bel Air offer premium amenities and stunning views. The region’s desirability, coupled with a strong economy, has sustained the luxury real estate segment, making it an attractive option for those seeking upscale investments.

High Real Estate Appreciation Rate

Despite the high cost of entry, real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area is known for its impressive appreciation rates. The region’s strong economic fundamentals and limited supply have historically driven property values upward. This means that real estate investments often offer the potential for substantial capital gains over time.

While San Francisco’s high housing costs can be a barrier, the region’s strong economy and desirability continue to attract investors. Careful consideration of factors such as property type, location, and market dynamics is crucial for making informed investment decisions in the San Francisco Bay Area. Investors should assess their goals, risk tolerance, and long-term strategies to determine whether this market aligns with their investment objectives.


References:

  • https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data
  • https://www.zillow.com/home-values/403105/bay-area-ca/
  • https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/SanFrancisco_CA/overview

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