Bay Area home prices in every city and ZIP code – San Francisco Chronicle

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As mortgage rates start to fall, Bay Area home values are growing once again.

Typical home values in the San Francisco metropolitan area have been on an incline since the first quarter of 2023, after multiple mortgage rate hikes cooled the market. Between April 2023 and December 2023, values in the metro area rose by about $33,000, according to Zillow data. That’s a tiny bump, just 1%, but it’s a reversal from the slump the region had seen in late 2022 and early 2023. And it comes as interest rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage drop below 7%, according to Freddie Mac, down from a two-decade high of 7.8% in October 2023.


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We’re still a far cry from the housing market of mid-2022, when the Bay Area was swept up in the national COVID-19-fueled real estate boom. From March 2020 through August 2022, the median home value in the U.S. surged from nearly $243,000 to a peak of about $338,000, according to Zillow data — a 39% increase.

In the San Francisco metro area, home values rose significantly as well: From March 2020 through a high at the end of June 2022, the area’s median home value increased from about $922,000 to roughly $1.22 million, a 32% increase.

But the Bay’s home values climbed more slowly than the rest of the nation. That’s probably because of the city’s already-steep home values, combined with a pandemic-era trend of local home-seekers moving into the outer Bay Area and beyond for more space and better value — a phenomenon economists have called “the doughnut effect.”

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And then, in July 2022, the Bay Area’s growth started to reverse. In the San Francisco and San Jose metropolitan areas, the typical home value dipped by about 12% and 11%, respectively, from June 2022 to April 2023. But San Jose’s home values are gaining again — the metro recorded a $122,000 bump up from April to December.

Bay Area home prices had climbed steadily since about 2012, following a dip caused by the 2007-09 recession. But the pandemic’s first two years drove unusually high costs even for the especially pricey metro area, propelled by a nationwide home inventory shortage that’s even more acute in the Bay. In a Feb. 2022 report, the National Association of Realtors found that for every 1,206 households earning about the median income in San Francisco and San Jose, only one home in their price bracket was on the market.

Starting in 2022, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised mortgage rates to tackle rising inflation. And the gains in the Bay Area started to reverse — and kept declining. As of December 2023, prices were still down from their peaks by around $116,000 in the San Francisco metro area and $50,000 in the San Jose metro area.

Though mortgage rates remain far above their pre-hike lows, many Bay Area real estate agents believe their recent drop is enough to bring buyers back to the housing market, especially in the San Jose region. That could cause home values to rise further as buyers compete with each other for a historically limited housing stock.

Looking at the Bay Area’s metros city by city, it’s clear some towns were hit less hard than San Francisco by the home value bust — and that so far at least, the slight uptick in the overall metro’s home values is not coming from S.F. proper. San Francisco itself saw home values remain essentially flat for much of 2023. But in outer Bay Area towns, particularly in the South Bay and East Bay suburbs, the decline has truly started to reverse. Home values in Santa Clara and Fremont went up by about $40,000 and $20,000 in the last three months of 2023, which is usually when the housing market slows for the winter.

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Change in average home value by city in the San Francisco area between December 2022 and December 2023

Though parts of the Bay Area are experiencing something of a market upswing, the region’s overall growth rate hasn’t put values back to their 2022 peaks, in contrast to the country overall. Nationwide, home values are at an all-time high of about $343,000.

Methodology

Housing value data comes from one of Zillow’s home value indexes. The value shown is based on single-family homes, condos and co-ops whose home value is between the 35th and 65th percentiles in a market. The values are adjusted based on short-term seasonal fluctuations. The data is updated quarterly, with the most recent figures sourced from the previous month.
Zillow’s home value index data represents an estimate of the typical home value in a given geography, such as a state or ZIP code. The data on this page is meant to compare regions and illustrate trends over time — it is not necessarily an indication of any individual home’s value.

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